Is Carter the answer at defensive line?

Assuming the mock draft by Ryle comes to fruition and all the defensive lineman with first round grades have been taken the Cowboys will be in a difficult situation.  How do they proceed in the draft?  Do they draft a reach or another position without such a great need?

Many people are advocating trade up, trade back, draft a free safety, anything but a tight end or take anything you can get at defensive line.  I think OCC brought up an interesting point last week on playmaking linebackers.  I have a new option, sort of out of the box so to speak, moving Bruce Carter to blindside defensive end and draft Ryan Shazier to play weak side outside linebacker.

Marinelli’s defense is predicated on “fast twitch” guys.  He values explosiveness over power.  Bruce Carter is an explosive athlete.  He has athletic gifts unlike most players on the Cowboy’s roster.  Most of the public complaints on Carter this past season were his lapses in coverage.  As a defensive end, coverage is not an issue and as a rushman, your primary job is to get to the quarterback.

Carter would likely have to add 10 to 15 pounds of muscle to his frame, but with his first step and speed, he could be a nightmare for opposing tackles.  This would also allow for the Cowboys to employ some creative Dick Lebeau type zone blitzing schemes where Carter falls back and Shazier blitz the hole.  Assuming Ware will be released due to salary cap issues; Carter could be the piece to replace Ware and create that edge pressure.

Shazier would fill the linebacker role vacated by Carter.  Some great film on him here – (Ryan Shazier v. Wisconsin).  He is a smaller player at 225 lbs, but with a pro contract leading to better meals, a pro weight room and off season training, he could likely add without losing his gift of speed and explosiveness.  He has strong instincts; which is a big issue for Carter. 

Shazier is the type of player that “makes things happen”, another calling card of the Marinelli defense is turnovers, flowing the ball and even more turnovers.  I was most impressed with OCC’s post on Shazier (Finding Playmaking Linebackers).   It clearly shows Shazier is the cream of the draft crop in linebacker playmakers.  Van Noy makes a lot of flashy plays but it is important to note, Shazier makes almost as many flashy plays but also makes more than double the number of tackles.

Whatever the Cowboys do this offseason will be predicated on developing more explosiveness.  It seems the Cowboys are following a plan, bringing in players who fit the physical attributes of the defense, rather than the dreaded best player available.  To continue facilitating a deep roster, players who are brought in will be quick first step with fast straight line speed. 

Remember size matters less when 3 or 4 players are converging on the ball carrier every play.

It's your call - Tweak it or Blow it up?

In sports, the last position you want to be in is the middle.  At the top, you are winning and with a piece or two could be hoisting a championship.  At the bottom, with some time, a few high draft picks and some value free agents, you can turn the ship around and move back to the top.  Being in the middle is maddening, as it is difficult to do anything to move in either direction.  The chances of drafting a franchise altering pick are slim, so improvement is usually up to expensive free agency.

The ultimate question is, would you prefer

A - one down year (6 and 10) and five top years (11 wins plus)

or

B - six seasons of records between 7 - 9 and 9 - 7

The Dallas Cowboys are the definition of middle.  For the past decade they have been the second scenario, bouncing around the .500 mark.  They cannot seem to climb above the 8 and 8 mark.  Each time they take a step forward, they fall back the following week.  Since this current core group has remained in the middle their whole careers, they have not had the chance to add additional key pieces and have been forced to rely upon each other to achieve success.

The current core group of player’s Romo (33), Austin (29), Witten (31), Spencer (29) and Ware (31) have been good to great players, but unfortunately have not been supplemented with the right pieces to build a championship contender.  With their high level of skill and in some cases potentially Hall of Fame careers, they were just not good enough to pull the Cowboys over the top alone.  Although most do not want to admit it, this group is reaching the age of decline and increased chance of injury.  Few players excel later in life (Peyton Manning, London Fletcher, etc), but the vast majority are out of the league in their early to mid-thirties.  Option B involves standing pat and hoping that with some minor tweaking and another year of learning the coaching systems, the results will vary significantly.

The next crop of core players’ are entering that phase of their careers where they will hit their peak.  The peak happens at the intersection of physical skill and mental sharpness.  We have all thought, if I knew now, back then, how much better of a player could I have been? 

That magical age is historically late 20s.  Murray (25), Smith (23), Bryant (25), Lee (27) and Church (25) are all approaching that point.  The majority of the Cowboys "young core" will be in that phase in the coming two years.  Following Option A this is the group you focus on and likely remove 60% of the current core this offseason.

The Cowboys are blessed with a very young team.  That group is learning and growing together to eventually become that championship team.  With the "young core" the Cowboys seem closer that most would think to some or all the characteristics of the final four teams because:

1 – veteran successful quarterback

2 – strong power running attack

3 – grinding offensive line, that can influence the later stages of games

4 – a defense that puts high focus on turnovers

5 – Strong special teams play

Of course there are some significant difference between the 2013 Dallas Cowboys and the final four teams in the Conference Finals, but I do not think the Cowboys are that far from competing, if they are smart with how they handle the coming two seasons.

The Cowboys should consider the 2014 season a year to build to move forward.  The salary cap is a mess due to long term contracts to older players and contracts being extended, adding dollars to years in the future.  In this vein, logic would dictate releasing veterans who are not living up to the contract and trading down in the draft to build around the "young core" with valuable pieces that fit the scheme, especially on the defensive line.  If the team drops below the dreaded 8 and 8 so be it, as adding one more impact player in the draft and freeing up salary cap space to spend wisely is the best path to good success in 2015, especially with a young core with 5 season of high productivity and potential Super Bowl payoff (s).

I choose option A, every time!

Too early Super Bowl Prediction

My way to early Super Bowl Prediction:

Seattle will win.

Why???
The meterologists are saying it will be awful out, similiar to the weather after Christmas.  They are predicting very cold and possibly snow.  In this weather strong, power running game and defense will win out.  It will be very difficult to pass the ball, so the high powered Denver offense will be somewhat stymied.

Super Bowl MVP - Marshawn Lynch

How I would fix the Dallas Cowboys 2014 offseason

My telephone rang last week.  A lovely ladies voice greeted me and asked me to hold for Mr. Jones.  Being half asleep and groggy, it wasn’t computing which Mr. Jones was calling me.  After a couple seconds of elevator music and much to my astonishment, Jerry Jones, owner and general manager of the Dallas Cowboys answered the phone.

We had a lovely chat for an hour about football, life and being a maverick, Mr. Jones told me he needed some new blood, some new thoughts on how to move forward.  Things had grown stagnant and the Cowboys needed some new ideas.  Then he did the unthinkable.  He asked me to submit my plan on how to return the Dallas Cowboys to their former glory.

Step one

 Fire Jason Garrett.  Following him out the door will be Bill Callaghan, Wes Phillips and Wade Wilson.  I will conduct two interviews; our new head coach Mike Zimmer and his new assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Norv Turner.  I would then allow these two to seek out and fill their coaching vacancies.  I would hope Zimmer would keep Marinelli, and get rid of Henderson, but that is his choice to make.

I would make it clear to Mike Zimmer that Club Cowboy is to end.  Discipline and order need to be restored.  Zimmer is known as a no nonsense fellow and I expect he will tighten things up around Valley Ranch.  After the injuries to the Bengals defense this year, Zimmer proved again he is a top defensive mind and has had the benefit of working within many of the best defensive coaching trees in the NFL (Bill Parcells, Rob Ryan, Jimmy Johnson, etc).  He has worked to meld these different ideas into his own system and with Marinelli as a hold over, it is one my system to add to the mix.

Norv Turner needs no introduction, but here goes, two names, Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.  Imagine what Norv can do to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, after the seasons from Gordon and Cameron.  The Browns offense had multiple Pro-Bowlers with far less talent than the Dallas Cowboys.  Imagine what Norv can achieve with the weapons on the Dallas sideline.  Norv has always been an awesome offensive coordinator, who blends running and passing, unlike Callaghan who is a pass heavy coordinator.

Step Two

When Jerry Jones took over the Cowboys, he was a gambler and ran the franchise his way.  Firing Landry was an unpopular move, but bringing in Jimmy Johnson was widely considered, years later, to be a genius move.  Al Davis, back in the day, was a maverick and a gambler too.  The Cowboys have lost the aggression in the front office and have become stagnant, making the same mistakes of other less successful teams.  The front office needs to become ruthless and stop rewarding past performance, much like the Patriots.

In this vein, release Demarcus Ware now and Miles Austin on June 1.  This will free up significant cap room – Dware - $7,432,250 and Austin - $5,500,000.  Both players are entering an injury prone stage of their careers and their production does not match their contracts.  I would make an effort to trade DWare, but I do not think anyone would offer me anything, as they can sign him as a free agent.

On this note, I would love to have Hatcher back, but unfortunately, there will be a team that offers him big money and he has a family to feed.  The Dallas Cowboys wish him all the best and would welcome him back at a club friendly contract.

Step Three

Tony Romo counts for an outrageous $21,733,000 this year on the cap.  Rework his deal down to a cap hit of $13,733,000 saving $8,000,000.  At the same time, redo the contracts of Brandon Carr saving $4,500,000; Sean Lee saving $3,200,000 and Orlando Scandrick saving $2,400,000.  These are players who should be in Dallas for a few more years, whether through talent or terrible contracts that are almost not able to be cut.

Note on two players

I would not redo Witten, as this will likely be his last year in Dallas, his cap hit is high and after drafting Escobar and Witten’s poor play this year, his time is coming.  Kyle Orton would make sense to cut, as a second quarterback making over $4million, but unfortunately, if you cut him, your savings is merely around $900,000 and in this situation, you have to still find another back up and now only have $900,000 to do it.  The same catch 22 exists with Bernadeau and Free, you can cut them, but with their dead money cap hits and the need to find a replacement, it makes little sense to dump them.

Step Four

Chop, chop, chop – Parnell, Costa and Durant are goners.  This saves $4.25 million and really doesn’t affect the on the field product, as really only Durant was a player this year and can be replaced by Wilber and Holloway.

Step Five

Get on the phones to other teams about trading our first rounder for either multiple picks this year or a pick this year and next year’s first.  Our pick is worth 1000 points, but with franchises like the Dolphins, Browns and Jets where it is playoffs of bust, they will be willing to make a move.  I would like to add another second and third, much like the San Francisco trade this year. 

That would mean 4 picks in the second and third rounds and with these, would add three bodies to the front four and an offensive lineman.  Great teams build from the lines out.  I would like to add two defensive tackles and one defensive end.  With Ware gone, we have Crawford, Wynn, Selvie, Brown, Rayford, Wilson and Bass, one addition like Trent Murphy or Kony Ealy would complete this group.  particularly, I like Murphy due to his physical nature and non-stop motor.

Defensive tackle is a bit more of a dog’s breakfast with Hayden, Wynn, Crawford, Irvin and Kearse.  Hardly a household name in the bunch.  The preferred two tackles would come from Nix, Sutton, Tuitt Jernigan and Donald.  Based upon simulated drafts at Drafttek, these are all players who should fall in the second and third rounds.  I really like Sutton, as a fast twitch, 3 technique necessary to attack the quarterback and drive the defense.  Of course, I would have to listen to my scouts and connections in the college game for our best options, but these are my favorites as of now.

Step Six

While on the phones, it would be time to contact agents and put out feelers to injured players that might sign club friendly one year contracts.  There are three names to keep a close eye on with ties to the team – Anthony Spencer, Henry Melton and Geno Atkins.  With limited cap space, it will be necessary to add players with warts to club friendly contracts and get the maximum mileage from them.  Veteran players with a little bit left in the tank, can be the most significant additions to clubs, think over the years with the Patriots – Seau, Harrison, Moss, Winters, etc.  With an emphasis on younger players, developed through smart drafting and strength and conditioning programs, it will be essential to identify veterans with something left in the tank who can add a bit of moxie and awareness.

Step Seven

This draft it is essential to add a third quarterback.  Orton will be gone likely next year, when his contract is less unfriendly for release.  With Romo’s contact, he better plan to start in Dallas for another 4 or 5 years, so this new quarterback would project as a future #2. 

Assuming Orton is release before next season, the new third quarterback would have a year to learn the system and get up to speed.  I like Aaron Murray from Georgia.  Great career numbers in a tough conference and a ton of experience in a good conference and big games.  Murray looks like he can “drive the bus” for a game or two if necessary, he likely isn’t a franchise quarterback though.  Murray is projected as a 5^th round pick.

Step Eight

Fire the strength and conditioning department.  To many injuries over the past few years have caused ongoing issues with wins and losses.  Maybe with changes in the offseason work-out rules, the Cowboys have not kept up with the new reality. 

I’d offer the job to Shannon Turley from Stanford.  He seems to have unique training methods to help limit injuries and increase sport specific training.  Sometimes change is needed, not some much due to problems with the existing coaches, but a different voice and methodology changes the results.  Remember, the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. Some guy named Einstein said that.  He was pretty smart, not sure if he was much of a football guy though.

On this vein, one more issue I would have checked is the turf at AT&T Stadium.  Maybe hamstrings can be correlated to the practice or game facilities.  Maybe the carpet needs to be replaced with a new product.

Step Eight

Moving forward, I would hire a special research department, of non-football people to analyze the game, specifically over the past few years since the rule changes favoring the offense came into effect.  I would find a few statistics majors who want an interesting project.  It is important to remember humans are predictable, although the pattern is not always noticeable.  There is always a tendency, it is necessary to find those tendencies.  Getting an advantage due to advanced statistical analysis could be the difference between a win and loss.  It seems other sports have moved ahead of football in sports statistical analysis. 

After reviewing my plan, Mr. Jones slid a package of papers across the table.  It was a contract offer, to become the next general manager of the Dallas Cowboys.  I looked down the page and saw the word “compensation”. 

Smack!  Seconds before seeing the full offer, a wayward train car from my sons Christmas train set hits my shoulder.  Some sort of screaming starts.  “Daddy, she threw my train set.”  From my dream job to another day in paradise at home with my wife and kids, maybe sometimes a dream is just that!

Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue on Amazon

This is so exciting, my first novel, a young adult adventure novel has debuted on Amazon.  This is the largest online book retailer in the world. 

Please check it out and buy your own copy at Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue on Amazon

My first novel - E-Published

Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue

You’re commanding a tall ship on the ocean, with the greatest naval captain in the fleet hot on your tail. He has a bigger ship, which is faster, with more guns and a seasoned pirate crew. They’re closing fast! He has been sailing the high seas for over thirty years, more than twice your age, your men are staring at you, waiting for you to tell them what to do next. What do you do?
This is but one of the dilemmas facing young Otto DeGraff in Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue, the story of a young boy from humble beginnings, who escapes an arranged marriage, becomes a stowaway on a battleship and unknowingly stumbles into the biggest act of treason in the history of the Dutch East India Company. The novel is set during the grand era of the high seas, at the height of the Dutch East India Company, when tall ships sailed the ocean, men made their living on the high seas and pirates terrified even the bravest of souls.

Otto faces insurmountable obstacles in his quest to find Mal Goue, the mythical artifact that turns dirt into gold and will ultimately save his family. Along the way Otto has to use his cunning, strength and nerve to overcome the cast of scoundrels including Mr. Landseer, the corrupt magistrate, the Pirate King and the treasonous Captain Vanderzee. In the exciting climax, Otto has to face his fears and his toughest adversary in a stunning sword dual to save his life and the lives of his crew.

Order the book online - http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/144126

Strange thins abound ....

Strange goings on in the NFL right now, and could have major impacts on the upcoming draft.   Since both free agency and trading seasons are not currently happening, teams cannot plug holes or bring in big name solutions and must deal solely with through the draft to improve their team.  It is completely backward to the traditional team building methodology.

Take the Bengals.  They are impacting upto 4 other teams right now (Panthers, Bills, Cardinals and 49ers).  With Carson Palmer demanding a trade and the likely destinations to be either San Fran or Arizona, how does this impact the draft?  What picks would likely be exchanged for the veteran pivot.  Will the 49ers or Cardinals draft a player for the Bengals and consummate the trade at a later date?  Will the Bengals accept all time delayed picks in 2012 and 2013?

This being a deep draft and with the other team getting a Pro-Bowl potential quarterback, I would suggest get what you can this season.  Adding Palmer to the Cardinals would likely mean a division title in the NFC West.  It would definitely vault the 49ers into a likely conversation as division favourites.

What about teams that are hoping to get in Matt Light or Cullen Jenkins or As… ?  If your offseason plan is to shore up the middle of your defense and Cullen Jenkins is available, do you go ahead and draft a Paea or Taylor?  Without having the advantage of knowing which free agents you can access, do you know what draft strategy to run?

The confusion builds with different groups of free agents.  Will the current tender system exist?  If not, what will replace it?  If you have 3 of 4 players at one position that are tender possible, could you possibly lose one of your starting ends and both primary back ups (like Dallas)?

What does Green Bay do with Nick Barnett?  He is a veteran, who lost his job and now has a contract and a back up role.  Is he a player you can release, or possibly trade for a late round pick?

Strange times are here in the NFL.  With the draft looming, we could see some weird, off the wall picks that are pre-ambles for trades that are coming.  Imagine the Cardinals taking a wide out in the second round.  Everyone will think they are off their collective rockers, but then when the new CBA is in effect, magically this wide out is in Cincinnati and Carson Palmer is a Cardinal, chucking the ball to Fitzgerald.

Designing a more effective defense

The Dallas Cowboys are working their draft room right now to plan their future.  There are a few mind sets out there for the draft safety, offensive line, defensive tackle, defensive end and even outside linebacker.  Many pundits are saying run stoppers are the main focus.

But maybe they are looking at this wrong.  Maybe their focus is wrong.  Think about this a slightly different way.  The Cowboys should be a formidable offense again next season.  I think Wade Phillips is a terrible head coach and was a poor influence on the team.  His lack of ability as a coach made the first 8 games of last season a write off.

With a better coaching staff in place for this year the team should be stronger.  Essentially, this is a 10 and 6 team without Wade Phillips.  Getting Romo back, less Barber and a better Bryant will mean a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball.  The Cowboys should be a top 10 offensive team in the NFL next season.  I think the first round draft pick would be wasted on the offensive side of the ball. 

Defense.  What a problem last season.  Phillips really lost control here.  This is an area that has to change.  The Cowboys have brought in a top notch,  pressure defense coordinator.  Ryan is well suited to coach the Cowboys defense.  His best ever pass rusher was in Oakland, with Derrick Burgess, a far, far cry from the talented DeMarcus Ware.  I think under the systems and guidance of Ryan, Ware could be a 20 sack player. 

Anthony Spencer will be better.  He will be bigger and stronger and will be a much better player.  I can foresee him with 8 sacks on the season, playing for a better system.  I do not think the Cowboys needs another outside rusher, it would be too early go give up on Spencer, who does have a good talent level.  As Parcells said, it takes three years to figure out what you are.  Spencer has hit year three.

I think, if you stick at #9, the pick has to be defense, but I think a different option than most are promoting.  If the Cowboys have a top 10 offense next year, that will mean in many games they will build an early lead.  That usually means the other team will need to pass to get back into the game.  Forcing other teams to pass more, means more opportunities to get to a quarterback.

Many teams build their 3 - 4 defense as a bunch of muckers as defensive ends, who have a sole position on the field to solely take up blockers to free playmaking linebackers to make tackles and hopefully sacks.  I think Dallas should take a different tact.  I would suggest trading down to pick up Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.  He is a top notch defensive end, who has come up big in big games.  He had 70 tackles last season, 20 tackles for a loss and 11.5 sacks, huge numbers for an end. 

With the second round pick, I would target Phil Taylor, Baylor, or if unavailable, trade backwards to target Jerrell Powe, Ole Miss.  This would add some serious beef in the middle of the line up, with the simple idea of taking up two blockers on running plays.  On passing downs, simply being big and powerful enough to bull rush a guard to hold the pocket (or even better collapse the pocket) is well enough.

On running downs, hold over Igor O, Ratliffe, Brent and the draft pick (Taylor/Powe) could handle the bulk of the plays (mixing in Clayborn).  This would add a lot of bulk and size to the line.  Rolling these types of players through a game would keep them fresher and allow them to focus on stopping the run.

On passing downs, I would move Ratliffe to defensive end, with Clayborn on the other end.  Ware and Spencer coming from the ends, would provide some scary blitz packages.  Those four players could combine for 40 plus sacks.  This type of attacking defense would help the faulty secondary, as corners would not have to cover for as long, as the front seven would put forward significant pressure.

I think Dallas should try to add a safety, but most of the picks should be spent on the defensive and offensive lines.  With an offense that should rank highly in the league, building a top notch pass defense should be a focus for the Cowboys.  They are likely not going to be in many close, grind them out games.

Why the Sens suck!

1 - Brian Lee - Post lock out, the Sens were sitting in a position to draft Mark Staal, the accepted best player available and Mucks went on a limb and reached for Brian Lee.  This move was widely criticised at the time and is a major reason the Senators back end is very weak now.  Staal would be a first pairing defenseman for the Sens and would look mighty attractive in their uniform for the next ten years.

2 - Dany Heatley - The deal with the Oilers was not a world beater but imagine Dustin Penner and Ladislav Smid in a Sens uniform now.  Penner would be a 30 goal grinder on Jason Spezza's wing, the perfect corner man and stand in front of the net compliment to Spezza's puck control game.  He would fill the classic Dave Andreychuk role.

3 - Zdeno Chara - The Sens kept Wade Redden and lost Chara in the course.  Rumours have it that Chara wanted an NHL captaincy and he would not get that in Ottawa.  Redden was a good community guy, but was not the on ice performer that Chara was.

4 - Bad contracts - Kovalev at $5 million, Gonchar at $5.5 million, Kuba at $3.8, Fisher at $4.2, etc.  The Sens need to re-think contracts before handing them out.  Aging stars are not worth the big money any more.  That money is being wasted on players who cannot contribute over 80 plus games.  Smaller contracts as well cause issues, Kelly at $2 million is a role that could be filled by a cheaper and younger player, to save money for the upper echelon players. 

Cap management is a key to success, when a player plays 30 minutes a game, that player should be compensated on a mathematical basis at a much higher rate than a player playing 12 to 15 per game.

5 - Goaltending - Pascale Leclaire looked like an up and coming goaltender.  See last year in the playoffs against Pittsburg.  Since his movement to Ottawa, he has been unable to stay healthy and therefore get consistency.  The best goalie in Sens history is Patrick Lalime.  That is a pretty bad statement on your franchises ability to draft, develop or acquire goaltenders.

Basically, right now, the Sens suck due to poor management.  I thinking Bryan Murray is a very solid hockey guy and has done his best.  I think some factors have been beyond his control (2) and some are back luck (5), some are Mucklers decisions (1 and 3 and some of 4) and some are the owner's meddling (4).

I truly think the Sens can be back to being competitive next year.  I think Murray should be promoted to special owner's envoy and Paul Fenton/Jeff Kealty should be brought into GM/Assistant GM the Senators moving forward.

What will the Bills do?

I think the Buffalo Bills will go after Cam Newton.  Chan Gailey likes running quarterbacks and Cam Newton is the best running prospect in a while.  They will likely try to trade down and acquire a 8 to 12 pick with the idea that Newton would be sitting there.

Another option is to go after Vince Young, the last talented running quarterback to leave college and use the #3 pick on an impact defensive player.

Best Player v. Fit for the System v. Highest Need

In the NFL, each team has a different drafting technique.  They all approach the draft in their own unique way. 

Dallas Cowboys - Best Player Available - The Cowboys tend to draft the best player available at their slot in each round.  They are not bound to making selection based upon need, but more on the quality of the player.  They drafted Dez Bryant, a wide receiver, with Roy Williams and Miles Austin in the fold.  The Cowboys had some other needs in their team, but they went with the potential home run in Bryant and left potential safeties and offensive linemen

Pittsburg Steelers - Fit for their System - The Steelers go after the best player for their system.  They have the zone blitz defense with a larger, active linebackers.  They also look for certain character elements in their draft prospects.  The Steelers tend to spend higher draft picks on offense and build their defense from players designed to succeed in a proven system.

New England Patriots - Highest Need - The Patriots have in their history a background of drafting on a need basis, with picks like Meriweather, Mayo and Mankins.  They filled the needs created by letting players leave via free agency or retiring.  Once a need is identified, they draft the right player to fill the need.  They do have strong depth, but will target a prospect to fill a need.

Senators Future Plans

Paul Holmgren turned around the Flyers in one offseason.  He did it with aggressive moves and unconventional methods.  He moved quickly and decisively.  He had some good starting pieces but moved quickly to add to that core.

Ottawa has a good start in place - Spezza, Neil, Kelly, Karlsson, Cowan, Rundblad, Lehner, their first round pick top four pick this season, etc.  They need to add to these positions and get some further assets to turn the ship around. 

After trading Fisher and his $4.2 million salary, and with Kovalev and Leclaire off the books, that is another $9.8 million, Daniel Alfredsson's cap hit drops $2.5 million, trading Phillips and Ruttu drops another $4.8 million.  That totals at a cap relief of $21.2 million.  That is a huge amount of cap freedom.  If Ottawa can get really lucky, they can get rid of Gonchar and Kuba, that would provide another $9.2 milllion to give them a total of $30.4 million. 

On the other side, Ottawa seems to have a variety of younger forwards who can definitely fill the slots of 7 through 13.  Hopefully, a few of them to can jump to the top six.  Ottawa going into next year has three top six forwards (Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek) and about 5 to fill the other six slots (Kelly, Neil, Regin, Winchester and Foligno).  Hopefully, one or two of the younger forwards (Foligno, Regin, Butler, O'Brien, Greening, Wick, etc) can make the jump to NHL second liners.  This does leave a bunch of players in limbo heading into next year (Smith, Butler, O'Brien, Shannon, Winchester, Bass).

On defense Ottawa is really strong with younger defenders, Karlsson, Cowan, Gryba, Weircioch, Rundblad etc.  This will become an area of strength.  With Karlsson to be the power play quarterback, Ottawa can afford to get a more seasoned back end complement.  Carkner will provide toughness and quality minutes. 

Likely the two first round pick this year will be used on some top flight scoring talent.  Likely Ottawa's pick will be a top 4, so they will get a good scorer.  Either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Gabriel Landeskog would look really good in an Ottawa uniform and can likely make a jump to a wing position on the top 6.

Ultimately, to get the most mileage out of the top line, Spezza needs a triggerman who can hit the back of the net and a garbage man that can cause havoc in the corners and in front of the net.  Colin Greening is doing that for Corey Locke in Bingo, maybe he can be the Ryan Smyth type player that can complement the Spezza skill set.
With $20 to $30 million in cap space, Ottawa needs to target a goalie who can start for a period of 3 to 5 years, as Lehner is a few seasons away, two to three top four defenseman, and at least one top three forward and likely another top six forward.  This would give an approximate $4 million per player, a good value option.

There are some interesting options on the market:
Goaltenders
Josh Harding and Antti Niemi are more affordable options
Bryzgalov or Craig Anderson for a larger pay day.

Defensemen
Chris Phillips for the resign at a reduced rate over previous contract
Pitkanen, White, Stuart, O'Brien, Babchuk, etc would be a nice addition

Forwards
Brad Richards would be a great second line center at the right price, but will likely have a huge ticket
Alex Frolov could regain his 30 goal level with Spezza feeding him (available because of injury?)
Justin Williams
Jussi Jokinen
Tomas Fleischmann - likely unavailable, but has a major injury
Marek Svatos - take a gamble on someone with upside

Targetting an injured player who is coming back might be a very good option.  Especially if you use the NFL mantra of hiring the best strength and training coach available and use them to the best of their abilities to keep these players healthy.

Ottawa Senators Fish for a 1st Rounder

Many people in Ottawa are upset over the trade of Mike Fisher.  I think this is an emotional decision based upon the person and community value, more than the value of the hockey player.  People in Ottawa are blinded from the production and price, by the connection to Rogers House and other charitable foundations.

Think of it this way, Chris Kelly scores an average of 11 points less in a season (adjusted to complete season) but makes over $2 million dollars less per year than Fisher.  How many more minutes does Fisher play?  How many more powerplay minutes does Fisher get?  How much time does Kelly spend on penalty killing, keeping his energies towards defensive play, not offensive?

Mike Fisher was paid in Ottawa to be a second line center in Ottawa and never reached this promise.  His career high of 53 points is way too low for a top six forward on a top notch playoff caliber team.  Fisher scores at a .53 points per game average, compared to a much higher percentage of around .75 points per game from a typical second line center.  Imagine this over a season, this is a difference of about 19 points. 

In the NHL, the lowest scoring team in 2009/2010 scored 2.39 goals per game, where as the highest scoring team scored 3.89 goals per game.  The majority of teams (28 of 30 teams - 93%), scored between 201 and 268 goals, meaning that the difference between a bottom offense and top offense is about 3/4 of a point per game.  Adding another 19 points means a huge swing in offensive output.

I think for Ottawa, getting a first round pick and $4 million in cap space is a great deal. 

Building a champion team out of spare parts

In early March each year one of the most exciting sporting events takes place ... March Madness.  The NCAA tournment is an exciting event, a peak athletic event, featuring amazing story lines and some of the most dramatic games.

These games are often decided by a point or two and often the games are a drastic battle of different styles.  When recruiting and running a program, not every school has the advantage of a steady stream of talented 6'8" or taller forwards. 

How can you ever combat the obvious advantage of the taller, more powerful opponent?  Basketball has five key advantages that can counteract the height and power of the 6'8" power forward.

1 - Style
Often teams conform to one of two different styles of play - smaller and faster or a larger, power game. 

The New York Knicks in the early to mid - 1990s were a team that prided themselves on playing the power game.  This style of game was originally made popular by the Detroit Pistons and coach Chuck Daly.  These teams featured large front lines and bruising players who pushed the boundaries of the rule book.  Intimidation is the key to the success of this style of play.  They ground the other team into submission with an onslaught of punishment.   Foul trouble results for the opposing team trying to match their intensity.  This style of play works best with a large team and requires less depth.  

The speed game is often played by teams without size of brute strength.  The Phoenix Suns of the 2000s were the masters of this type of game.  They specialized in the transition game, moving the ball quickly and lighting up the score board.  They run the floor and force the other team to match their intensity and drive.  This often tires the other team out and makes them take stupid fouls due to being tired and lowers the minutes able to be played by the opposing team's star players.  These teams require more depth, as these teams run the full game.

2 - Three Point Shooting
The great equalizer in basketball is the three point shot.  Getting the extra point for the distance shot is a huge advantage.  The three point shot also increases the ability to run the motion offense.

Statisically speaking, a good three point shooter will hit approximately 40% of their three point attempts.  A good strong inside player will hit around 50% of there shots from the floor.  Let's analyse how this plays out in reality.

3 point shooter
10 shots at 40% success equals a total of 12 points scored

2 point scorer
10 shots at 50% success equals a total of 10 points scored

As you can see, the advantage lies with the three point shooters over the inside player. 

3 - The 'X' Factor
Successful basketball teams seem to have an 'X' factor that pushes them to the highest levels of success.  I call this factor the craziness factor.  Most successful teams that win championships feature a player that walks the line of mentally unsound.  Recent examples of "dynasty" teams all had their "x factor": 1980s Lakers featured Kurt Rambis, the 1990s Knicks featured Charles Oakley, the 1990s Bulls had Rodman, the 2000s San Antonio Spurs with Bruce Bowen and the 2000s Lakers have Ron Artest.  I think the Piston's teams featured a team full of these type of players.

This type of player keeps the other teams from feeling fully comfortable on the court.  They are a wild card that might do just about anything to win the game, including hard fouls, the occassion elbow, etc.  This player keeps the other team honest and aware of where said player is on the court.

4 - Motion offense and the preferred match up
Motion offense is a great way to counteract a size advantage.  It forces the other team to move their big players around and not "anchor" them in the key.  Bringing a huge 7 footer out twenty five feet from the basket on offense or defense is a win for the smaller teams.  This takes away a major rebounding presence for the other team and allows you to move into the second phase of offense design - preferred match ups.

Remember Michael Jordan in his hey-day, as a 6'6" shooting guard being covered by smaller, less athletic guards?  Where did MJ take them?  He often went to the post.  Those amazing Bulls teams didn't have the prototypical inside scorer like a Shaq, Ewing, Hakeem, etc.  Those teams did not have any prototypical players.  Pippen was the definition of point foward, who preferred the ball in his hands, BJ Armstrong was a great shooter, but not much of a point guard, MJ had a great post game, but in the body of a guard. 

What did the Bulls do better than anyone else?  They worked their match ups.  They forced the other team into mistakes through match up issues.  The common offensive line up the of the triangle with MJ in the post, Pippen on the wing, Longley or Cartwright at the elbow and BJ up top, not only accetuated their unique abilities but it often brought the bruising 6'8" forward away from the basket and let MJ physically dominate the smaller shooting guard on his back.

5 - Moxie
This is tough to define.  This is the "us against the world" attitude.  The self belief in yourself and your teammates that you will win the day, in the end.  Often this quality in a smaller player is called "Napoleon syndrome" after the diminutive french leader who almost conquered the world. 

Moxie is a team attitude that we are not going to back down, that we are not going to give an inch.  Teams like the Pistons of the 1980s were famous for their intimidation tactics.  A team would often fold under their pressure and style of play.  A few Laimbeer elbows would often sway even the most ardent individual.  Teams didn't like to play the Pistons in the playoffs because the Pistons, although not the most talented team, they came with an intensity seldom seen in non-Championship groups. 

Finding players with a chip on the shoulder, who play with an emotion can be the tide that swings a game and a season.  Smaller players cannot afford to be robots, they have to play their hardest and on the edge or they may not be around any longer.
How this translates into a successful team
Combining these strategies is the key to success in basketball when you do not have the advantage of recruiting the 6'8" power forward.  You have to use different strategies when genetics doesn't deal you the best hand.  Playing a speed game with lots of motion offense and creating mismatches on the offensive end will lead to more open distance jumpers and more offensive rebounds as you are pulling their bigs out from under the hoop. 

Controlling the tempo on the other team will allow you to maximize your offensive opportunities and force them into an uncomfortable style of game.  The biggest advantage is the three point shot, changing the dynamics of the game and opening the lanes for driving and getting the easy two.  The pump fake, ball on the ground, into the lane is a great way to get other team's bigs in foul trouble as well.

Glamour positions

In the NFL, there are your glamour positions - quarterback, wide receiver, running back, left tackle, middle linebacker and shut down corner.  There are some other positions on the field that are not the glamour positions that are equally important, if not more than the traditional positions.  Positions that are becoming indispensible in today's NFL to winning franchises.

These non-traditional positions are becoming more envogue with teams drafting with these non-traditional positions being drafted in the first ten picks (30% of the picks).  Here are four positions that are quickly becoming very important to NFL teams.

NOSE TACKLE - In the 3-4 or in the 4-3 base defenses the nose tackle is the key position in a stopping an offenses running game.  A top notch nose tackle will take on two blockers, usually a right guard and center, meaning there are now only two tackles, a left guard, a tight end and a full back (five offensive players) to deal with two defensive ends, a middle linebacker, two outside linebacker and a defensive tackle (six defensive players).  A nose tackle that can be handled one on one means the imbalance is changed, and you have a six on six situation, a far better ratio for the offense. 

The second great item that a top notch nose tackle provides is forcing the offense to move horizontally, not vertically.  A running back heading straight up the field is far more dangerous than a running back forced to run to the left or right.  A space eating nose tackle, can control the flow of the running game between the guards.  That change of direction can be particularily dangerous for teams that feature a power running game.

RIGHT GUARD - The other side of the nose tackle is the right guard.  The right tackle has the tight end on the right side helping to protect against speed rushers, but the right guard is left alone in the trenches to deal with the other teams top pass rushing defensive tackle.  They will line up one on one with the other teams lineman.  The only two offensive linemen expected to block one on one with the other teams players are the left tackle and right guard.  Generally, these two players are on islands, expected to dominate alone.

A top right guard will be a top notch run blocker, as more running plays go to the strong side (right side) becuase the offense can set up a power move with the right guard, center, right tackle, tight end and full back (5 players) taking on a defensive tackle, defensive end, middle linebacker, outside line backer and strong safety (5 players).  This give the advantage as the running back has equal blockers to the defensive players.

STRONG SAFETY - Safeties used to be an afterthought on a defense.  It was often a position to have a veteran player fill.  Their role was to be a true safety, don't get beat deep (free safety) and help in run support (strong safety).  Passing games have become increasingly sophisticated, with people like Mike Martz, pushing the limits, safeties have to get involved with more than run support.  With the evolution of the tight end and multiple receiver sets, safeties find themselves in the slot, press coverage, etc.

Strong safety is very quickly becoming the new middle linebacker on defense.  Today's strong safeties are expected to cover like a blanket, hit like a Mac truck and wreak havoc with turnovers.  Strong safeties need to be feared in the NFL.  In the old days of the NFL, middle linebackers were the terrifying force in the middle of a defense, but now, with wide receivers routinely coming across the middle, they are often "protected" by their offensive coordinators from the linebackers, making the strong safety the enforcers.  Teams are looking for that special athlete that can run, hit and have controlled aggression.

TIGHT END - In old time football, the tight end was a hammer.  A large fellow who had one job, put a helmet on a linebacker and spring the half back for a long run.  This position was an extension of the offensive line, merely a smaller lineman who was an eligible receiver and a great blocker.

As passing offenses evolved in the 1980s, the tight end became a position that became more and more involved in offenses.  Tight ends became increasingly valuable, especially in third down situations.  Wide receivers stretch the field, running backs swing out in the flats, and the tight ends will usually run a delay pattern, where they block for a two or three count, then release.  This usually means that the linebacker has committed and the tight end can then run a modified screen.


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Blue Jays in 2011

It is shaping up to be a long summer in Toronto.  Nothing major has been done to upgrade this team.  A better year from Hill and Lind should make some improvement and the suggested slide of the Rays will also help. 

The Jays have many younger players that the organization is prepping for contention in 2013 and beyond.  Interesting how this plan mirrors the aging Yankees (Jeter, Rivera, Posada).  Having a slow offseason is not the norm for the Yankees, missing out on the top free agents this season will not be the rules for the Yankees, more the miscue. 

I think the Jays should risk and bit and try to move the time table forward.  I would look at three free agents ... Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Brian Fuentes.  These are three veterans with potential to contribute big numbers but also provide younger teammates with some guidance.  With all the ManRam stories, apparently he does prepare fastidiously for games and pitchers. 

This would add a combo LF/DH that can likely produce in the .300/60/200 range.  This added to hold overs (Hill, Lind, Wells and Bautista) will likely produce a six person swat team in the range of .275/170/550.  This type of offense will propel them into the tops of the American league. 

The Jays have hope that Rajia Davis will be the effective lead off hitter they desire.  He will have to learn to be a bit more selective, but with a .284 average and 50 stolen bases last year, he will look good on top. 

Imagine for a moment, the following line up (1 through 9) ... Davis, Hill, Lind, Bautista, Ramirez, Guerrero, Wells, Encarnacion, Arencibia, Escobar - that is a pretty scary 1 through 9. 

Adding Fuentes might be as important.  The current bullpen alignment is a bit scary.  With Dotel or Frasor as your closer, Fuentes makes the natural order fall back into place with Frasor in the 8th and Fuentes in the 9th.  Fuentes is a lefty, which is particularily exciting when dealing with the Red Sox and Yankees, as they both have lefthanded dominant line ups.

NFL draft 2011

This is an interesting NFL draft this year.  There are teams that have limited chance next year to compete and other teams that might be a player of two from playoff contention.  Some of theteams at the top of the draft are a few years from being NFL playoff teams (Carolina, Denver, Buffalo and Cleveland) but following them; Cincinnati, Arizona, Dallas, 49ers (due to a weak division), Titans and Texans are all close to the playoffs and could see themselves as a player away. 

Cincinnati was a play off team last year and was a mess this year.  Arizona plays in a weak division, Matt Hassleback and a top 4 pick could put them back in the play offs.  Dallas is an defensive tackle, offensive guard and a veteran safety or two from contention.  Titans, if they can lure Kyle Orton, have the freedom to chose a bit of everything and the Texans, if All Pro linebacker DeMeco Ryans doesn't get hurt, is possibly a playoff team. 

With some high end talent available early one (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley and Green) it is conceivable that a team in the 5 to 11 range might make a move for an impact player.  When so many teams seem to be playoff calibre and had such an awful 2010, it might be time to make a big splash and move up to get that one piece of the puzzle, the shutdown corner, the space eating tackle, the blitzing passrusher or the roadgrader lineman.

For the four early picking teams, a chance to move down, still get an impact top ten pick and add a few more picks will be very exciting.  The Panthers, Bills, Broncos and Browns are more than one player away from competing, but still getting that top ten pick and a chance for more impact players makes there rebuild faster.  If I were these teams I would be targetting competing in two to three years, getting more draft picks will be essential in reaching that goal.

Now if I am those four teams, I would follow the systems in place by the Philadelphia Eagles.  It pains me to mention the Eagles as a team to emulate, but Andy Reid does a great job building his team.  He primarily drafts offensive and defensive linemen in the 1st round.  Building from the line out is how you are going to make a championship team. 

Following the Eagles plan says, building out from the lines is the first step to competing.  Giving more time to your quarterback and less time to their quarterback is essential in building a winner.  This as well opens or closes running lanes.  Having a bus driver quarterback behind a top notch offensive line is better than having a ProBowl talented quarterback behind a sieve offensive line.  see David Carr

The OHL age gap

In the Ontario Hockey League the gap between a 16 year old and an 18 year old is massive, it is totally magnified from the obvious differences seen in day to day life.  An 18 year old hockey player is so much more developed than a 16 year old hockey player.  That does not mean that no 16 year old hockey player is better than an 18 year old, but a team of 18 year olds would likely beat a team of 16 year old hockey players 9 out of 10 times, as long as Sidney Crosby is not 16.

In the OHL, a team could concievably be annually competitive by trading their 16 year olds at Christmas to other teams to load up with 18 year old prospects.  This would be done by targetting the teams building for the future and giving them another prospect to build around with time to play right now and learn on the fly, along with weakening their current team to get a better pick in the draft.

Many times in the OHL, I have seen marginal 18 year olds on other teams flourish with the opporunity to play in another city.  This constant recruitment and turnover of 18 year olds would make your team annually competitive.  Then, when the players hit 20, you can shop some of them to be overagers in another city.  This will get back some picks that can become more 18 year olds.

Again, with the OHL and any other league, scouting is essential, identifying players in lower rounds is going to allow for more talent and more flexibility down the road. 

The other piece to building that top notch team is getting disgruntled US college players to join midseason.  These are older, stronger and likely bigger players that are totally motivated to make the NHL, so they are willing to sacrifice where necessary.

I am convinced that age is a huge issue in the OHL and teams that win, win with 18 year olds, not 16 year olds.  A talented but raw 16 year old, that can turn into two solid 18 year olds is a good trade any day in my book!

Championship compression

I heard a really interesting comment about team's that win have good compression.  Much like you, I had no idea what compression means in a sports sense.  Compression is the level of respect between the top and bottom of a team. 

A team where the top player respects and values the bottom player are said to have good team compression, whereas a team with bad compression is a team where the top player has no respect for the bottom player.  Since each sport has a long season/playoff, compression is important to keep team unity and cohesiveness. 

This concept makes a ton of sense.  If the top player does not respect the job and contribution of the lower echelon players, they will have no chemistry and in tough games or long playoff battles, these teams will come unglued quickly. 

Compression helps to explain why some teams come together in rough patches and others come unglued.  Look at David Tyree of the NY Giants.  A special teamer, who was not much of a receiver.  He stepped up to make a huge play because the quarterback believed in him and his team had excellent compression (and defense). 

Last year of a contract

I live in Ottawa, Canada and have heard many fans saying "Trade Kovalev".  I cannot understand this movement.  It makes little sense here.  The "asset" you will get back is a similar salary on another team, that is a player they are dissappointed in.  So, essentially, this move becomes my problem for your problem. 

Kovalev is in the last year of a contract making $5 million.  After this season, the Senators will have both Leclaire and Kovalev off the books, meaning $8.8 million in spending room for the 2011 season.  This money could be huge with Brad Richards, Alexandre Semin, Simon Gagne, Chad Larose, David Backes, etc potentially hitting the free agency market. 

The NHL gms have to start thinking like NBA gms where cap space is a sought commodity.  I am so surprised a player like Kovalev is not a hot commodity.  He has an expiring cap hit of $5million.  In the off season, you can use that $5 million to shop for another player.  He gives cap flexibility to a team on the cusp of making it big.  Especially if that team can "hide" a player like Kovalev in the minors.

One of the few gms in hockey that seems to work the rules is Paul Holmgren, he masterfully took a terrible team and remade them essentially in one offseason by trading picks for exclusive negotiation rights to top players.  Other teams have now noticed this strategy and have started using it.