Saturday, February 12, 2011

Ottawa Senators Fish for a 1st Rounder

Many people in Ottawa are upset over the trade of Mike Fisher.  I think this is an emotional decision based upon the person and community value, more than the value of the hockey player.  People in Ottawa are blinded from the production and price, by the connection to Rogers House and other charitable foundations.

Think of it this way, Chris Kelly scores an average of 11 points less in a season (adjusted to complete season) but makes over $2 million dollars less per year than Fisher.  How many more minutes does Fisher play?  How many more powerplay minutes does Fisher get?  How much time does Kelly spend on penalty killing, keeping his energies towards defensive play, not offensive?

Mike Fisher was paid in Ottawa to be a second line center in Ottawa and never reached this promise.  His career high of 53 points is way too low for a top six forward on a top notch playoff caliber team.  Fisher scores at a .53 points per game average, compared to a much higher percentage of around .75 points per game from a typical second line center.  Imagine this over a season, this is a difference of about 19 points. 

In the NHL, the lowest scoring team in 2009/2010 scored 2.39 goals per game, where as the highest scoring team scored 3.89 goals per game.  The majority of teams (28 of 30 teams - 93%), scored between 201 and 268 goals, meaning that the difference between a bottom offense and top offense is about 3/4 of a point per game.  Adding another 19 points means a huge swing in offensive output.

I think for Ottawa, getting a first round pick and $4 million in cap space is a great deal. 

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