Saturday, February 12, 2011

Senators Future Plans

Paul Holmgren turned around the Flyers in one offseason.  He did it with aggressive moves and unconventional methods.  He moved quickly and decisively.  He had some good starting pieces but moved quickly to add to that core.

Ottawa has a good start in place - Spezza, Neil, Kelly, Karlsson, Cowan, Rundblad, Lehner, their first round pick top four pick this season, etc.  They need to add to these positions and get some further assets to turn the ship around. 

After trading Fisher and his $4.2 million salary, and with Kovalev and Leclaire off the books, that is another $9.8 million, Daniel Alfredsson's cap hit drops $2.5 million, trading Phillips and Ruttu drops another $4.8 million.  That totals at a cap relief of $21.2 million.  That is a huge amount of cap freedom.  If Ottawa can get really lucky, they can get rid of Gonchar and Kuba, that would provide another $9.2 milllion to give them a total of $30.4 million. 

On the other side, Ottawa seems to have a variety of younger forwards who can definitely fill the slots of 7 through 13.  Hopefully, a few of them to can jump to the top six.  Ottawa going into next year has three top six forwards (Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek) and about 5 to fill the other six slots (Kelly, Neil, Regin, Winchester and Foligno).  Hopefully, one or two of the younger forwards (Foligno, Regin, Butler, O'Brien, Greening, Wick, etc) can make the jump to NHL second liners.  This does leave a bunch of players in limbo heading into next year (Smith, Butler, O'Brien, Shannon, Winchester, Bass).

On defense Ottawa is really strong with younger defenders, Karlsson, Cowan, Gryba, Weircioch, Rundblad etc.  This will become an area of strength.  With Karlsson to be the power play quarterback, Ottawa can afford to get a more seasoned back end complement.  Carkner will provide toughness and quality minutes. 

Likely the two first round pick this year will be used on some top flight scoring talent.  Likely Ottawa's pick will be a top 4, so they will get a good scorer.  Either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Gabriel Landeskog would look really good in an Ottawa uniform and can likely make a jump to a wing position on the top 6.

Ultimately, to get the most mileage out of the top line, Spezza needs a triggerman who can hit the back of the net and a garbage man that can cause havoc in the corners and in front of the net.  Colin Greening is doing that for Corey Locke in Bingo, maybe he can be the Ryan Smyth type player that can complement the Spezza skill set.
With $20 to $30 million in cap space, Ottawa needs to target a goalie who can start for a period of 3 to 5 years, as Lehner is a few seasons away, two to three top four defenseman, and at least one top three forward and likely another top six forward.  This would give an approximate $4 million per player, a good value option.

There are some interesting options on the market:
Goaltenders
Josh Harding and Antti Niemi are more affordable options
Bryzgalov or Craig Anderson for a larger pay day.

Defensemen
Chris Phillips for the resign at a reduced rate over previous contract
Pitkanen, White, Stuart, O'Brien, Babchuk, etc would be a nice addition

Forwards
Brad Richards would be a great second line center at the right price, but will likely have a huge ticket
Alex Frolov could regain his 30 goal level with Spezza feeding him (available because of injury?)
Justin Williams
Jussi Jokinen
Tomas Fleischmann - likely unavailable, but has a major injury
Marek Svatos - take a gamble on someone with upside

Targetting an injured player who is coming back might be a very good option.  Especially if you use the NFL mantra of hiring the best strength and training coach available and use them to the best of their abilities to keep these players healthy.

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