The Dallas Cowboys are working their draft room right now to plan their future. There are a few mind sets out there for the draft safety, offensive line, defensive tackle, defensive end and even outside linebacker. Many pundits are saying run stoppers are the main focus.
But maybe they are looking at this wrong. Maybe their focus is wrong. Think about this a slightly different way. The Cowboys should be a formidable offense again next season. I think Wade Phillips is a terrible head coach and was a poor influence on the team. His lack of ability as a coach made the first 8 games of last season a write off.
With a better coaching staff in place for this year the team should be stronger. Essentially, this is a 10 and 6 team without Wade Phillips. Getting Romo back, less Barber and a better Bryant will mean a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys should be a top 10 offensive team in the NFL next season. I think the first round draft pick would be wasted on the offensive side of the ball.
Defense. What a problem last season. Phillips really lost control here. This is an area that has to change. The Cowboys have brought in a top notch, pressure defense coordinator. Ryan is well suited to coach the Cowboys defense. His best ever pass rusher was in Oakland, with Derrick Burgess, a far, far cry from the talented DeMarcus Ware. I think under the systems and guidance of Ryan, Ware could be a 20 sack player.
Anthony Spencer will be better. He will be bigger and stronger and will be a much better player. I can foresee him with 8 sacks on the season, playing for a better system. I do not think the Cowboys needs another outside rusher, it would be too early go give up on Spencer, who does have a good talent level. As Parcells said, it takes three years to figure out what you are. Spencer has hit year three.
I think, if you stick at #9, the pick has to be defense, but I think a different option than most are promoting. If the Cowboys have a top 10 offense next year, that will mean in many games they will build an early lead. That usually means the other team will need to pass to get back into the game. Forcing other teams to pass more, means more opportunities to get to a quarterback.
Many teams build their 3 - 4 defense as a bunch of muckers as defensive ends, who have a sole position on the field to solely take up blockers to free playmaking linebackers to make tackles and hopefully sacks. I think Dallas should take a different tact. I would suggest trading down to pick up Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. He is a top notch defensive end, who has come up big in big games. He had 70 tackles last season, 20 tackles for a loss and 11.5 sacks, huge numbers for an end.
With the second round pick, I would target Phil Taylor, Baylor, or if unavailable, trade backwards to target Jerrell Powe, Ole Miss. This would add some serious beef in the middle of the line up, with the simple idea of taking up two blockers on running plays. On passing downs, simply being big and powerful enough to bull rush a guard to hold the pocket (or even better collapse the pocket) is well enough.
On running downs, hold over Igor O, Ratliffe, Brent and the draft pick (Taylor/Powe) could handle the bulk of the plays (mixing in Clayborn). This would add a lot of bulk and size to the line. Rolling these types of players through a game would keep them fresher and allow them to focus on stopping the run.
On passing downs, I would move Ratliffe to defensive end, with Clayborn on the other end. Ware and Spencer coming from the ends, would provide some scary blitz packages. Those four players could combine for 40 plus sacks. This type of attacking defense would help the faulty secondary, as corners would not have to cover for as long, as the front seven would put forward significant pressure.
I think Dallas should try to add a safety, but most of the picks should be spent on the defensive and offensive lines. With an offense that should rank highly in the league, building a top notch pass defense should be a focus for the Cowboys. They are likely not going to be in many close, grind them out games.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Why the Sens suck!
1 - Brian Lee - Post lock out, the Sens were sitting in a position to draft Mark Staal, the accepted best player available and Mucks went on a limb and reached for Brian Lee. This move was widely criticised at the time and is a major reason the Senators back end is very weak now. Staal would be a first pairing defenseman for the Sens and would look mighty attractive in their uniform for the next ten years.
2 - Dany Heatley - The deal with the Oilers was not a world beater but imagine Dustin Penner and Ladislav Smid in a Sens uniform now. Penner would be a 30 goal grinder on Jason Spezza's wing, the perfect corner man and stand in front of the net compliment to Spezza's puck control game. He would fill the classic Dave Andreychuk role.
3 - Zdeno Chara - The Sens kept Wade Redden and lost Chara in the course. Rumours have it that Chara wanted an NHL captaincy and he would not get that in Ottawa. Redden was a good community guy, but was not the on ice performer that Chara was.
4 - Bad contracts - Kovalev at $5 million, Gonchar at $5.5 million, Kuba at $3.8, Fisher at $4.2, etc. The Sens need to re-think contracts before handing them out. Aging stars are not worth the big money any more. That money is being wasted on players who cannot contribute over 80 plus games. Smaller contracts as well cause issues, Kelly at $2 million is a role that could be filled by a cheaper and younger player, to save money for the upper echelon players.
Cap management is a key to success, when a player plays 30 minutes a game, that player should be compensated on a mathematical basis at a much higher rate than a player playing 12 to 15 per game.
5 - Goaltending - Pascale Leclaire looked like an up and coming goaltender. See last year in the playoffs against Pittsburg. Since his movement to Ottawa, he has been unable to stay healthy and therefore get consistency. The best goalie in Sens history is Patrick Lalime. That is a pretty bad statement on your franchises ability to draft, develop or acquire goaltenders.
Basically, right now, the Sens suck due to poor management. I thinking Bryan Murray is a very solid hockey guy and has done his best. I think some factors have been beyond his control (2) and some are back luck (5), some are Mucklers decisions (1 and 3 and some of 4) and some are the owner's meddling (4).
I truly think the Sens can be back to being competitive next year. I think Murray should be promoted to special owner's envoy and Paul Fenton/Jeff Kealty should be brought into GM/Assistant GM the Senators moving forward.
2 - Dany Heatley - The deal with the Oilers was not a world beater but imagine Dustin Penner and Ladislav Smid in a Sens uniform now. Penner would be a 30 goal grinder on Jason Spezza's wing, the perfect corner man and stand in front of the net compliment to Spezza's puck control game. He would fill the classic Dave Andreychuk role.
3 - Zdeno Chara - The Sens kept Wade Redden and lost Chara in the course. Rumours have it that Chara wanted an NHL captaincy and he would not get that in Ottawa. Redden was a good community guy, but was not the on ice performer that Chara was.
4 - Bad contracts - Kovalev at $5 million, Gonchar at $5.5 million, Kuba at $3.8, Fisher at $4.2, etc. The Sens need to re-think contracts before handing them out. Aging stars are not worth the big money any more. That money is being wasted on players who cannot contribute over 80 plus games. Smaller contracts as well cause issues, Kelly at $2 million is a role that could be filled by a cheaper and younger player, to save money for the upper echelon players.
Cap management is a key to success, when a player plays 30 minutes a game, that player should be compensated on a mathematical basis at a much higher rate than a player playing 12 to 15 per game.
5 - Goaltending - Pascale Leclaire looked like an up and coming goaltender. See last year in the playoffs against Pittsburg. Since his movement to Ottawa, he has been unable to stay healthy and therefore get consistency. The best goalie in Sens history is Patrick Lalime. That is a pretty bad statement on your franchises ability to draft, develop or acquire goaltenders.
Basically, right now, the Sens suck due to poor management. I thinking Bryan Murray is a very solid hockey guy and has done his best. I think some factors have been beyond his control (2) and some are back luck (5), some are Mucklers decisions (1 and 3 and some of 4) and some are the owner's meddling (4).
I truly think the Sens can be back to being competitive next year. I think Murray should be promoted to special owner's envoy and Paul Fenton/Jeff Kealty should be brought into GM/Assistant GM the Senators moving forward.
What will the Bills do?
I think the Buffalo Bills will go after Cam Newton. Chan Gailey likes running quarterbacks and Cam Newton is the best running prospect in a while. They will likely try to trade down and acquire a 8 to 12 pick with the idea that Newton would be sitting there.
Another option is to go after Vince Young, the last talented running quarterback to leave college and use the #3 pick on an impact defensive player.
Another option is to go after Vince Young, the last talented running quarterback to leave college and use the #3 pick on an impact defensive player.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Best Player v. Fit for the System v. Highest Need
In the NFL, each team has a different drafting technique. They all approach the draft in their own unique way.
Dallas Cowboys - Best Player Available - The Cowboys tend to draft the best player available at their slot in each round. They are not bound to making selection based upon need, but more on the quality of the player. They drafted Dez Bryant, a wide receiver, with Roy Williams and Miles Austin in the fold. The Cowboys had some other needs in their team, but they went with the potential home run in Bryant and left potential safeties and offensive linemen
Pittsburg Steelers - Fit for their System - The Steelers go after the best player for their system. They have the zone blitz defense with a larger, active linebackers. They also look for certain character elements in their draft prospects. The Steelers tend to spend higher draft picks on offense and build their defense from players designed to succeed in a proven system.
New England Patriots - Highest Need - The Patriots have in their history a background of drafting on a need basis, with picks like Meriweather, Mayo and Mankins. They filled the needs created by letting players leave via free agency or retiring. Once a need is identified, they draft the right player to fill the need. They do have strong depth, but will target a prospect to fill a need.
Dallas Cowboys - Best Player Available - The Cowboys tend to draft the best player available at their slot in each round. They are not bound to making selection based upon need, but more on the quality of the player. They drafted Dez Bryant, a wide receiver, with Roy Williams and Miles Austin in the fold. The Cowboys had some other needs in their team, but they went with the potential home run in Bryant and left potential safeties and offensive linemen
Pittsburg Steelers - Fit for their System - The Steelers go after the best player for their system. They have the zone blitz defense with a larger, active linebackers. They also look for certain character elements in their draft prospects. The Steelers tend to spend higher draft picks on offense and build their defense from players designed to succeed in a proven system.
New England Patriots - Highest Need - The Patriots have in their history a background of drafting on a need basis, with picks like Meriweather, Mayo and Mankins. They filled the needs created by letting players leave via free agency or retiring. Once a need is identified, they draft the right player to fill the need. They do have strong depth, but will target a prospect to fill a need.
Senators Future Plans
Paul Holmgren turned around the Flyers in one offseason. He did it with aggressive moves and unconventional methods. He moved quickly and decisively. He had some good starting pieces but moved quickly to add to that core.
Ottawa has a good start in place - Spezza, Neil, Kelly, Karlsson, Cowan, Rundblad, Lehner, their first round pick top four pick this season, etc. They need to add to these positions and get some further assets to turn the ship around.
After trading Fisher and his $4.2 million salary, and with Kovalev and Leclaire off the books, that is another $9.8 million, Daniel Alfredsson's cap hit drops $2.5 million, trading Phillips and Ruttu drops another $4.8 million. That totals at a cap relief of $21.2 million. That is a huge amount of cap freedom. If Ottawa can get really lucky, they can get rid of Gonchar and Kuba, that would provide another $9.2 milllion to give them a total of $30.4 million.
On the other side, Ottawa seems to have a variety of younger forwards who can definitely fill the slots of 7 through 13. Hopefully, a few of them to can jump to the top six. Ottawa going into next year has three top six forwards (Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek) and about 5 to fill the other six slots (Kelly, Neil, Regin, Winchester and Foligno). Hopefully, one or two of the younger forwards (Foligno, Regin, Butler, O'Brien, Greening, Wick, etc) can make the jump to NHL second liners. This does leave a bunch of players in limbo heading into next year (Smith, Butler, O'Brien, Shannon, Winchester, Bass).
On defense Ottawa is really strong with younger defenders, Karlsson, Cowan, Gryba, Weircioch, Rundblad etc. This will become an area of strength. With Karlsson to be the power play quarterback, Ottawa can afford to get a more seasoned back end complement. Carkner will provide toughness and quality minutes.
Likely the two first round pick this year will be used on some top flight scoring talent. Likely Ottawa's pick will be a top 4, so they will get a good scorer. Either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Gabriel Landeskog would look really good in an Ottawa uniform and can likely make a jump to a wing position on the top 6.
Ultimately, to get the most mileage out of the top line, Spezza needs a triggerman who can hit the back of the net and a garbage man that can cause havoc in the corners and in front of the net. Colin Greening is doing that for Corey Locke in Bingo, maybe he can be the Ryan Smyth type player that can complement the Spezza skill set.
With $20 to $30 million in cap space, Ottawa needs to target a goalie who can start for a period of 3 to 5 years, as Lehner is a few seasons away, two to three top four defenseman, and at least one top three forward and likely another top six forward. This would give an approximate $4 million per player, a good value option.
There are some interesting options on the market:
Goaltenders
Josh Harding and Antti Niemi are more affordable options
Bryzgalov or Craig Anderson for a larger pay day.
Defensemen
Chris Phillips for the resign at a reduced rate over previous contract
Pitkanen, White, Stuart, O'Brien, Babchuk, etc would be a nice addition
Forwards
Brad Richards would be a great second line center at the right price, but will likely have a huge ticket
Alex Frolov could regain his 30 goal level with Spezza feeding him (available because of injury?)
Justin Williams
Jussi Jokinen
Tomas Fleischmann - likely unavailable, but has a major injury
Marek Svatos - take a gamble on someone with upside
Targetting an injured player who is coming back might be a very good option. Especially if you use the NFL mantra of hiring the best strength and training coach available and use them to the best of their abilities to keep these players healthy.
Ottawa has a good start in place - Spezza, Neil, Kelly, Karlsson, Cowan, Rundblad, Lehner, their first round pick top four pick this season, etc. They need to add to these positions and get some further assets to turn the ship around.
After trading Fisher and his $4.2 million salary, and with Kovalev and Leclaire off the books, that is another $9.8 million, Daniel Alfredsson's cap hit drops $2.5 million, trading Phillips and Ruttu drops another $4.8 million. That totals at a cap relief of $21.2 million. That is a huge amount of cap freedom. If Ottawa can get really lucky, they can get rid of Gonchar and Kuba, that would provide another $9.2 milllion to give them a total of $30.4 million.
On the other side, Ottawa seems to have a variety of younger forwards who can definitely fill the slots of 7 through 13. Hopefully, a few of them to can jump to the top six. Ottawa going into next year has three top six forwards (Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek) and about 5 to fill the other six slots (Kelly, Neil, Regin, Winchester and Foligno). Hopefully, one or two of the younger forwards (Foligno, Regin, Butler, O'Brien, Greening, Wick, etc) can make the jump to NHL second liners. This does leave a bunch of players in limbo heading into next year (Smith, Butler, O'Brien, Shannon, Winchester, Bass).
On defense Ottawa is really strong with younger defenders, Karlsson, Cowan, Gryba, Weircioch, Rundblad etc. This will become an area of strength. With Karlsson to be the power play quarterback, Ottawa can afford to get a more seasoned back end complement. Carkner will provide toughness and quality minutes.
Likely the two first round pick this year will be used on some top flight scoring talent. Likely Ottawa's pick will be a top 4, so they will get a good scorer. Either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Gabriel Landeskog would look really good in an Ottawa uniform and can likely make a jump to a wing position on the top 6.
Ultimately, to get the most mileage out of the top line, Spezza needs a triggerman who can hit the back of the net and a garbage man that can cause havoc in the corners and in front of the net. Colin Greening is doing that for Corey Locke in Bingo, maybe he can be the Ryan Smyth type player that can complement the Spezza skill set.
With $20 to $30 million in cap space, Ottawa needs to target a goalie who can start for a period of 3 to 5 years, as Lehner is a few seasons away, two to three top four defenseman, and at least one top three forward and likely another top six forward. This would give an approximate $4 million per player, a good value option.
There are some interesting options on the market:
Goaltenders
Josh Harding and Antti Niemi are more affordable options
Bryzgalov or Craig Anderson for a larger pay day.
Defensemen
Chris Phillips for the resign at a reduced rate over previous contract
Pitkanen, White, Stuart, O'Brien, Babchuk, etc would be a nice addition
Forwards
Brad Richards would be a great second line center at the right price, but will likely have a huge ticket
Alex Frolov could regain his 30 goal level with Spezza feeding him (available because of injury?)
Justin Williams
Jussi Jokinen
Tomas Fleischmann - likely unavailable, but has a major injury
Marek Svatos - take a gamble on someone with upside
Targetting an injured player who is coming back might be a very good option. Especially if you use the NFL mantra of hiring the best strength and training coach available and use them to the best of their abilities to keep these players healthy.
Ottawa Senators Fish for a 1st Rounder
Many people in Ottawa are upset over the trade of Mike Fisher. I think this is an emotional decision based upon the person and community value, more than the value of the hockey player. People in Ottawa are blinded from the production and price, by the connection to Rogers House and other charitable foundations.
Think of it this way, Chris Kelly scores an average of 11 points less in a season (adjusted to complete season) but makes over $2 million dollars less per year than Fisher. How many more minutes does Fisher play? How many more powerplay minutes does Fisher get? How much time does Kelly spend on penalty killing, keeping his energies towards defensive play, not offensive?
Mike Fisher was paid in Ottawa to be a second line center in Ottawa and never reached this promise. His career high of 53 points is way too low for a top six forward on a top notch playoff caliber team. Fisher scores at a .53 points per game average, compared to a much higher percentage of around .75 points per game from a typical second line center. Imagine this over a season, this is a difference of about 19 points.
In the NHL, the lowest scoring team in 2009/2010 scored 2.39 goals per game, where as the highest scoring team scored 3.89 goals per game. The majority of teams (28 of 30 teams - 93%), scored between 201 and 268 goals, meaning that the difference between a bottom offense and top offense is about 3/4 of a point per game. Adding another 19 points means a huge swing in offensive output.
I think for Ottawa, getting a first round pick and $4 million in cap space is a great deal.
Think of it this way, Chris Kelly scores an average of 11 points less in a season (adjusted to complete season) but makes over $2 million dollars less per year than Fisher. How many more minutes does Fisher play? How many more powerplay minutes does Fisher get? How much time does Kelly spend on penalty killing, keeping his energies towards defensive play, not offensive?
Mike Fisher was paid in Ottawa to be a second line center in Ottawa and never reached this promise. His career high of 53 points is way too low for a top six forward on a top notch playoff caliber team. Fisher scores at a .53 points per game average, compared to a much higher percentage of around .75 points per game from a typical second line center. Imagine this over a season, this is a difference of about 19 points.
In the NHL, the lowest scoring team in 2009/2010 scored 2.39 goals per game, where as the highest scoring team scored 3.89 goals per game. The majority of teams (28 of 30 teams - 93%), scored between 201 and 268 goals, meaning that the difference between a bottom offense and top offense is about 3/4 of a point per game. Adding another 19 points means a huge swing in offensive output.
I think for Ottawa, getting a first round pick and $4 million in cap space is a great deal.
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