In early March each year one of the most exciting sporting events takes place ... March Madness. The NCAA tournment is an exciting event, a peak athletic event, featuring amazing story lines and some of the most dramatic games.
These games are often decided by a point or two and often the games are a drastic battle of different styles. When recruiting and running a program, not every school has the advantage of a steady stream of talented 6'8" or taller forwards.
How can you ever combat the obvious advantage of the taller, more powerful opponent? Basketball has five key advantages that can counteract the height and power of the 6'8" power forward.
1 - Style
Often teams conform to one of two different styles of play - smaller and faster or a larger, power game.
The New York Knicks in the early to mid - 1990s were a team that prided themselves on playing the power game. This style of game was originally made popular by the Detroit Pistons and coach Chuck Daly. These teams featured large front lines and bruising players who pushed the boundaries of the rule book. Intimidation is the key to the success of this style of play. They ground the other team into submission with an onslaught of punishment. Foul trouble results for the opposing team trying to match their intensity. This style of play works best with a large team and requires less depth.
The speed game is often played by teams without size of brute strength. The Phoenix Suns of the 2000s were the masters of this type of game. They specialized in the transition game, moving the ball quickly and lighting up the score board. They run the floor and force the other team to match their intensity and drive. This often tires the other team out and makes them take stupid fouls due to being tired and lowers the minutes able to be played by the opposing team's star players. These teams require more depth, as these teams run the full game.
2 - Three Point Shooting
The great equalizer in basketball is the three point shot. Getting the extra point for the distance shot is a huge advantage. The three point shot also increases the ability to run the motion offense.
Statisically speaking, a good three point shooter will hit approximately 40% of their three point attempts. A good strong inside player will hit around 50% of there shots from the floor. Let's analyse how this plays out in reality.
3 point shooter
10 shots at 40% success equals a total of 12 points scored
2 point scorer
10 shots at 50% success equals a total of 10 points scored
As you can see, the advantage lies with the three point shooters over the inside player.
3 - The 'X' Factor
Successful basketball teams seem to have an 'X' factor that pushes them to the highest levels of success. I call this factor the craziness factor. Most successful teams that win championships feature a player that walks the line of mentally unsound. Recent examples of "dynasty" teams all had their "x factor": 1980s Lakers featured Kurt Rambis, the 1990s Knicks featured Charles Oakley, the 1990s Bulls had Rodman, the 2000s San Antonio Spurs with Bruce Bowen and the 2000s Lakers have Ron Artest. I think the Piston's teams featured a team full of these type of players.
This type of player keeps the other teams from feeling fully comfortable on the court. They are a wild card that might do just about anything to win the game, including hard fouls, the occassion elbow, etc. This player keeps the other team honest and aware of where said player is on the court.
4 - Motion offense and the preferred match up
Motion offense is a great way to counteract a size advantage. It forces the other team to move their big players around and not "anchor" them in the key. Bringing a huge 7 footer out twenty five feet from the basket on offense or defense is a win for the smaller teams. This takes away a major rebounding presence for the other team and allows you to move into the second phase of offense design - preferred match ups.
Remember Michael Jordan in his hey-day, as a 6'6" shooting guard being covered by smaller, less athletic guards? Where did MJ take them? He often went to the post. Those amazing Bulls teams didn't have the prototypical inside scorer like a Shaq, Ewing, Hakeem, etc. Those teams did not have any prototypical players. Pippen was the definition of point foward, who preferred the ball in his hands, BJ Armstrong was a great shooter, but not much of a point guard, MJ had a great post game, but in the body of a guard.
What did the Bulls do better than anyone else? They worked their match ups. They forced the other team into mistakes through match up issues. The common offensive line up the of the triangle with MJ in the post, Pippen on the wing, Longley or Cartwright at the elbow and BJ up top, not only accetuated their unique abilities but it often brought the bruising 6'8" forward away from the basket and let MJ physically dominate the smaller shooting guard on his back.
5 - Moxie
This is tough to define. This is the "us against the world" attitude. The self belief in yourself and your teammates that you will win the day, in the end. Often this quality in a smaller player is called "Napoleon syndrome" after the diminutive french leader who almost conquered the world.
Moxie is a team attitude that we are not going to back down, that we are not going to give an inch. Teams like the Pistons of the 1980s were famous for their intimidation tactics. A team would often fold under their pressure and style of play. A few Laimbeer elbows would often sway even the most ardent individual. Teams didn't like to play the Pistons in the playoffs because the Pistons, although not the most talented team, they came with an intensity seldom seen in non-Championship groups.
Finding players with a chip on the shoulder, who play with an emotion can be the tide that swings a game and a season. Smaller players cannot afford to be robots, they have to play their hardest and on the edge or they may not be around any longer.
How this translates into a successful team
Combining these strategies is the key to success in basketball when you do not have the advantage of recruiting the 6'8" power forward. You have to use different strategies when genetics doesn't deal you the best hand. Playing a speed game with lots of motion offense and creating mismatches on the offensive end will lead to more open distance jumpers and more offensive rebounds as you are pulling their bigs out from under the hoop.
Controlling the tempo on the other team will allow you to maximize your offensive opportunities and force them into an uncomfortable style of game. The biggest advantage is the three point shot, changing the dynamics of the game and opening the lanes for driving and getting the easy two. The pump fake, ball on the ground, into the lane is a great way to get other team's bigs in foul trouble as well.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Glamour positions
In the NFL, there are your glamour positions - quarterback, wide receiver, running back, left tackle, middle linebacker and shut down corner. There are some other positions on the field that are not the glamour positions that are equally important, if not more than the traditional positions. Positions that are becoming indispensible in today's NFL to winning franchises.
These non-traditional positions are becoming more envogue with teams drafting with these non-traditional positions being drafted in the first ten picks (30% of the picks). Here are four positions that are quickly becoming very important to NFL teams.
NOSE TACKLE - In the 3-4 or in the 4-3 base defenses the nose tackle is the key position in a stopping an offenses running game. A top notch nose tackle will take on two blockers, usually a right guard and center, meaning there are now only two tackles, a left guard, a tight end and a full back (five offensive players) to deal with two defensive ends, a middle linebacker, two outside linebacker and a defensive tackle (six defensive players). A nose tackle that can be handled one on one means the imbalance is changed, and you have a six on six situation, a far better ratio for the offense.
The second great item that a top notch nose tackle provides is forcing the offense to move horizontally, not vertically. A running back heading straight up the field is far more dangerous than a running back forced to run to the left or right. A space eating nose tackle, can control the flow of the running game between the guards. That change of direction can be particularily dangerous for teams that feature a power running game.
RIGHT GUARD - The other side of the nose tackle is the right guard. The right tackle has the tight end on the right side helping to protect against speed rushers, but the right guard is left alone in the trenches to deal with the other teams top pass rushing defensive tackle. They will line up one on one with the other teams lineman. The only two offensive linemen expected to block one on one with the other teams players are the left tackle and right guard. Generally, these two players are on islands, expected to dominate alone.
A top right guard will be a top notch run blocker, as more running plays go to the strong side (right side) becuase the offense can set up a power move with the right guard, center, right tackle, tight end and full back (5 players) taking on a defensive tackle, defensive end, middle linebacker, outside line backer and strong safety (5 players). This give the advantage as the running back has equal blockers to the defensive players.
STRONG SAFETY - Safeties used to be an afterthought on a defense. It was often a position to have a veteran player fill. Their role was to be a true safety, don't get beat deep (free safety) and help in run support (strong safety). Passing games have become increasingly sophisticated, with people like Mike Martz, pushing the limits, safeties have to get involved with more than run support. With the evolution of the tight end and multiple receiver sets, safeties find themselves in the slot, press coverage, etc.
Strong safety is very quickly becoming the new middle linebacker on defense. Today's strong safeties are expected to cover like a blanket, hit like a Mac truck and wreak havoc with turnovers. Strong safeties need to be feared in the NFL. In the old days of the NFL, middle linebackers were the terrifying force in the middle of a defense, but now, with wide receivers routinely coming across the middle, they are often "protected" by their offensive coordinators from the linebackers, making the strong safety the enforcers. Teams are looking for that special athlete that can run, hit and have controlled aggression.
TIGHT END - In old time football, the tight end was a hammer. A large fellow who had one job, put a helmet on a linebacker and spring the half back for a long run. This position was an extension of the offensive line, merely a smaller lineman who was an eligible receiver and a great blocker.
As passing offenses evolved in the 1980s, the tight end became a position that became more and more involved in offenses. Tight ends became increasingly valuable, especially in third down situations. Wide receivers stretch the field, running backs swing out in the flats, and the tight ends will usually run a delay pattern, where they block for a two or three count, then release. This usually means that the linebacker has committed and the tight end can then run a modified screen.
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These non-traditional positions are becoming more envogue with teams drafting with these non-traditional positions being drafted in the first ten picks (30% of the picks). Here are four positions that are quickly becoming very important to NFL teams.
NOSE TACKLE - In the 3-4 or in the 4-3 base defenses the nose tackle is the key position in a stopping an offenses running game. A top notch nose tackle will take on two blockers, usually a right guard and center, meaning there are now only two tackles, a left guard, a tight end and a full back (five offensive players) to deal with two defensive ends, a middle linebacker, two outside linebacker and a defensive tackle (six defensive players). A nose tackle that can be handled one on one means the imbalance is changed, and you have a six on six situation, a far better ratio for the offense.
The second great item that a top notch nose tackle provides is forcing the offense to move horizontally, not vertically. A running back heading straight up the field is far more dangerous than a running back forced to run to the left or right. A space eating nose tackle, can control the flow of the running game between the guards. That change of direction can be particularily dangerous for teams that feature a power running game.
RIGHT GUARD - The other side of the nose tackle is the right guard. The right tackle has the tight end on the right side helping to protect against speed rushers, but the right guard is left alone in the trenches to deal with the other teams top pass rushing defensive tackle. They will line up one on one with the other teams lineman. The only two offensive linemen expected to block one on one with the other teams players are the left tackle and right guard. Generally, these two players are on islands, expected to dominate alone.
A top right guard will be a top notch run blocker, as more running plays go to the strong side (right side) becuase the offense can set up a power move with the right guard, center, right tackle, tight end and full back (5 players) taking on a defensive tackle, defensive end, middle linebacker, outside line backer and strong safety (5 players). This give the advantage as the running back has equal blockers to the defensive players.
STRONG SAFETY - Safeties used to be an afterthought on a defense. It was often a position to have a veteran player fill. Their role was to be a true safety, don't get beat deep (free safety) and help in run support (strong safety). Passing games have become increasingly sophisticated, with people like Mike Martz, pushing the limits, safeties have to get involved with more than run support. With the evolution of the tight end and multiple receiver sets, safeties find themselves in the slot, press coverage, etc.
Strong safety is very quickly becoming the new middle linebacker on defense. Today's strong safeties are expected to cover like a blanket, hit like a Mac truck and wreak havoc with turnovers. Strong safeties need to be feared in the NFL. In the old days of the NFL, middle linebackers were the terrifying force in the middle of a defense, but now, with wide receivers routinely coming across the middle, they are often "protected" by their offensive coordinators from the linebackers, making the strong safety the enforcers. Teams are looking for that special athlete that can run, hit and have controlled aggression.
TIGHT END - In old time football, the tight end was a hammer. A large fellow who had one job, put a helmet on a linebacker and spring the half back for a long run. This position was an extension of the offensive line, merely a smaller lineman who was an eligible receiver and a great blocker.
As passing offenses evolved in the 1980s, the tight end became a position that became more and more involved in offenses. Tight ends became increasingly valuable, especially in third down situations. Wide receivers stretch the field, running backs swing out in the flats, and the tight ends will usually run a delay pattern, where they block for a two or three count, then release. This usually means that the linebacker has committed and the tight end can then run a modified screen.
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
Blue Jays in 2011
It is shaping up to be a long summer in Toronto. Nothing major has been done to upgrade this team. A better year from Hill and Lind should make some improvement and the suggested slide of the Rays will also help.
The Jays have many younger players that the organization is prepping for contention in 2013 and beyond. Interesting how this plan mirrors the aging Yankees (Jeter, Rivera, Posada). Having a slow offseason is not the norm for the Yankees, missing out on the top free agents this season will not be the rules for the Yankees, more the miscue.
I think the Jays should risk and bit and try to move the time table forward. I would look at three free agents ... Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Brian Fuentes. These are three veterans with potential to contribute big numbers but also provide younger teammates with some guidance. With all the ManRam stories, apparently he does prepare fastidiously for games and pitchers.
This would add a combo LF/DH that can likely produce in the .300/60/200 range. This added to hold overs (Hill, Lind, Wells and Bautista) will likely produce a six person swat team in the range of .275/170/550. This type of offense will propel them into the tops of the American league.
The Jays have hope that Rajia Davis will be the effective lead off hitter they desire. He will have to learn to be a bit more selective, but with a .284 average and 50 stolen bases last year, he will look good on top.
Imagine for a moment, the following line up (1 through 9) ... Davis, Hill, Lind, Bautista, Ramirez, Guerrero, Wells, Encarnacion, Arencibia, Escobar - that is a pretty scary 1 through 9.
Adding Fuentes might be as important. The current bullpen alignment is a bit scary. With Dotel or Frasor as your closer, Fuentes makes the natural order fall back into place with Frasor in the 8th and Fuentes in the 9th. Fuentes is a lefty, which is particularily exciting when dealing with the Red Sox and Yankees, as they both have lefthanded dominant line ups.
The Jays have many younger players that the organization is prepping for contention in 2013 and beyond. Interesting how this plan mirrors the aging Yankees (Jeter, Rivera, Posada). Having a slow offseason is not the norm for the Yankees, missing out on the top free agents this season will not be the rules for the Yankees, more the miscue.
I think the Jays should risk and bit and try to move the time table forward. I would look at three free agents ... Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Brian Fuentes. These are three veterans with potential to contribute big numbers but also provide younger teammates with some guidance. With all the ManRam stories, apparently he does prepare fastidiously for games and pitchers.
This would add a combo LF/DH that can likely produce in the .300/60/200 range. This added to hold overs (Hill, Lind, Wells and Bautista) will likely produce a six person swat team in the range of .275/170/550. This type of offense will propel them into the tops of the American league.
The Jays have hope that Rajia Davis will be the effective lead off hitter they desire. He will have to learn to be a bit more selective, but with a .284 average and 50 stolen bases last year, he will look good on top.
Imagine for a moment, the following line up (1 through 9) ... Davis, Hill, Lind, Bautista, Ramirez, Guerrero, Wells, Encarnacion, Arencibia, Escobar - that is a pretty scary 1 through 9.
Adding Fuentes might be as important. The current bullpen alignment is a bit scary. With Dotel or Frasor as your closer, Fuentes makes the natural order fall back into place with Frasor in the 8th and Fuentes in the 9th. Fuentes is a lefty, which is particularily exciting when dealing with the Red Sox and Yankees, as they both have lefthanded dominant line ups.
Friday, January 14, 2011
NFL draft 2011
This is an interesting NFL draft this year. There are teams that have limited chance next year to compete and other teams that might be a player of two from playoff contention. Some of theteams at the top of the draft are a few years from being NFL playoff teams (Carolina, Denver, Buffalo and Cleveland) but following them; Cincinnati, Arizona, Dallas, 49ers (due to a weak division), Titans and Texans are all close to the playoffs and could see themselves as a player away.
Cincinnati was a play off team last year and was a mess this year. Arizona plays in a weak division, Matt Hassleback and a top 4 pick could put them back in the play offs. Dallas is an defensive tackle, offensive guard and a veteran safety or two from contention. Titans, if they can lure Kyle Orton, have the freedom to chose a bit of everything and the Texans, if All Pro linebacker DeMeco Ryans doesn't get hurt, is possibly a playoff team.
With some high end talent available early one (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley and Green) it is conceivable that a team in the 5 to 11 range might make a move for an impact player. When so many teams seem to be playoff calibre and had such an awful 2010, it might be time to make a big splash and move up to get that one piece of the puzzle, the shutdown corner, the space eating tackle, the blitzing passrusher or the roadgrader lineman.
For the four early picking teams, a chance to move down, still get an impact top ten pick and add a few more picks will be very exciting. The Panthers, Bills, Broncos and Browns are more than one player away from competing, but still getting that top ten pick and a chance for more impact players makes there rebuild faster. If I were these teams I would be targetting competing in two to three years, getting more draft picks will be essential in reaching that goal.
Now if I am those four teams, I would follow the systems in place by the Philadelphia Eagles. It pains me to mention the Eagles as a team to emulate, but Andy Reid does a great job building his team. He primarily drafts offensive and defensive linemen in the 1st round. Building from the line out is how you are going to make a championship team.
Following the Eagles plan says, building out from the lines is the first step to competing. Giving more time to your quarterback and less time to their quarterback is essential in building a winner. This as well opens or closes running lanes. Having a bus driver quarterback behind a top notch offensive line is better than having a ProBowl talented quarterback behind a sieve offensive line. see David Carr
Cincinnati was a play off team last year and was a mess this year. Arizona plays in a weak division, Matt Hassleback and a top 4 pick could put them back in the play offs. Dallas is an defensive tackle, offensive guard and a veteran safety or two from contention. Titans, if they can lure Kyle Orton, have the freedom to chose a bit of everything and the Texans, if All Pro linebacker DeMeco Ryans doesn't get hurt, is possibly a playoff team.
With some high end talent available early one (Bowers, Peterson, Fairley and Green) it is conceivable that a team in the 5 to 11 range might make a move for an impact player. When so many teams seem to be playoff calibre and had such an awful 2010, it might be time to make a big splash and move up to get that one piece of the puzzle, the shutdown corner, the space eating tackle, the blitzing passrusher or the roadgrader lineman.
For the four early picking teams, a chance to move down, still get an impact top ten pick and add a few more picks will be very exciting. The Panthers, Bills, Broncos and Browns are more than one player away from competing, but still getting that top ten pick and a chance for more impact players makes there rebuild faster. If I were these teams I would be targetting competing in two to three years, getting more draft picks will be essential in reaching that goal.
Now if I am those four teams, I would follow the systems in place by the Philadelphia Eagles. It pains me to mention the Eagles as a team to emulate, but Andy Reid does a great job building his team. He primarily drafts offensive and defensive linemen in the 1st round. Building from the line out is how you are going to make a championship team.
Following the Eagles plan says, building out from the lines is the first step to competing. Giving more time to your quarterback and less time to their quarterback is essential in building a winner. This as well opens or closes running lanes. Having a bus driver quarterback behind a top notch offensive line is better than having a ProBowl talented quarterback behind a sieve offensive line. see David Carr
Sunday, January 2, 2011
The OHL age gap
In the Ontario Hockey League the gap between a 16 year old and an 18 year old is massive, it is totally magnified from the obvious differences seen in day to day life. An 18 year old hockey player is so much more developed than a 16 year old hockey player. That does not mean that no 16 year old hockey player is better than an 18 year old, but a team of 18 year olds would likely beat a team of 16 year old hockey players 9 out of 10 times, as long as Sidney Crosby is not 16.
In the OHL, a team could concievably be annually competitive by trading their 16 year olds at Christmas to other teams to load up with 18 year old prospects. This would be done by targetting the teams building for the future and giving them another prospect to build around with time to play right now and learn on the fly, along with weakening their current team to get a better pick in the draft.
Many times in the OHL, I have seen marginal 18 year olds on other teams flourish with the opporunity to play in another city. This constant recruitment and turnover of 18 year olds would make your team annually competitive. Then, when the players hit 20, you can shop some of them to be overagers in another city. This will get back some picks that can become more 18 year olds.
Again, with the OHL and any other league, scouting is essential, identifying players in lower rounds is going to allow for more talent and more flexibility down the road.
The other piece to building that top notch team is getting disgruntled US college players to join midseason. These are older, stronger and likely bigger players that are totally motivated to make the NHL, so they are willing to sacrifice where necessary.
I am convinced that age is a huge issue in the OHL and teams that win, win with 18 year olds, not 16 year olds. A talented but raw 16 year old, that can turn into two solid 18 year olds is a good trade any day in my book!
In the OHL, a team could concievably be annually competitive by trading their 16 year olds at Christmas to other teams to load up with 18 year old prospects. This would be done by targetting the teams building for the future and giving them another prospect to build around with time to play right now and learn on the fly, along with weakening their current team to get a better pick in the draft.
Many times in the OHL, I have seen marginal 18 year olds on other teams flourish with the opporunity to play in another city. This constant recruitment and turnover of 18 year olds would make your team annually competitive. Then, when the players hit 20, you can shop some of them to be overagers in another city. This will get back some picks that can become more 18 year olds.
Again, with the OHL and any other league, scouting is essential, identifying players in lower rounds is going to allow for more talent and more flexibility down the road.
The other piece to building that top notch team is getting disgruntled US college players to join midseason. These are older, stronger and likely bigger players that are totally motivated to make the NHL, so they are willing to sacrifice where necessary.
I am convinced that age is a huge issue in the OHL and teams that win, win with 18 year olds, not 16 year olds. A talented but raw 16 year old, that can turn into two solid 18 year olds is a good trade any day in my book!
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