Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Is Carter the answer at defensive line?



Assuming the mock draft by Ryle comes to fruition and all the defensive lineman with first round grades have been taken the Cowboys will be in a difficult situation.  How do they proceed in the draft?  Do they draft a reach or another position without such a great need?

Many people are advocating trade up, trade back, draft a free safety, anything but a tight end or take anything you can get at defensive line.  I think OCC brought up an interesting point last week on playmaking linebackers.  I have a new option, sort of out of the box so to speak, moving Bruce Carter to blindside defensive end and draft Ryan Shazier to play weak side outside linebacker.

Marinelli’s defense is predicated on “fast twitch” guys.  He values explosiveness over power.  Bruce Carter is an explosive athlete.  He has athletic gifts unlike most players on the Cowboy’s roster.  Most of the public complaints on Carter this past season were his lapses in coverage.  As a defensive end, coverage is not an issue and as a rushman, your primary job is to get to the quarterback.

Carter would likely have to add 10 to 15 pounds of muscle to his frame, but with his first step and speed, he could be a nightmare for opposing tackles.  This would also allow for the Cowboys to employ some creative Dick Lebeau type zone blitzing schemes where Carter falls back and Shazier blitz the hole.  Assuming Ware will be released due to salary cap issues; Carter could be the piece to replace Ware and create that edge pressure.

Shazier would fill the linebacker role vacated by Carter.  Some great film on him here – (Ryan Shazier v. Wisconsin).  He is a smaller player at 225 lbs, but with a pro contract leading to better meals, a pro weight room and off season training, he could likely add without losing his gift of speed and explosiveness.  He has strong instincts; which is a big issue for Carter. 

Shazier is the type of player that “makes things happen”, another calling card of the Marinelli defense is turnovers, flowing the ball and even more turnovers.  I was most impressed with OCC’s post on Shazier (Finding Playmaking Linebackers).   It clearly shows Shazier is the cream of the draft crop in linebacker playmakers.  Van Noy makes a lot of flashy plays but it is important to note, Shazier makes almost as many flashy plays but also makes more than double the number of tackles.

Whatever the Cowboys do this offseason will be predicated on developing more explosiveness.  It seems the Cowboys are following a plan, bringing in players who fit the physical attributes of the defense, rather than the dreaded best player available.  To continue facilitating a deep roster, players who are brought in will be quick first step with fast straight line speed. 

Remember size matters less when 3 or 4 players are converging on the ball carrier every play.

Monday, January 20, 2014

It's your call - Tweak it or Blow it up?

In sports, the last position you want to be in is the middle.  At the top, you are winning and with a piece or two could be hoisting a championship.  At the bottom, with some time, a few high draft picks and some value free agents, you can turn the ship around and move back to the top.  Being in the middle is maddening, as it is difficult to do anything to move in either direction.  The chances of drafting a franchise altering pick are slim, so improvement is usually up to expensive free agency.
The ultimate question is, would you prefer
A - one down year (6 and 10) and five top years (11 wins plus)
or
B - six seasons of records between 7 - 9 and 9 - 7

The Dallas Cowboys are the definition of middle.  For the past decade they have been the second scenario, bouncing around the .500 mark.  They cannot seem to climb above the 8 and 8 mark.  Each time they take a step forward, they fall back the following week.  Since this current core group has remained in the middle their whole careers, they have not had the chance to add additional key pieces and have been forced to rely upon each other to achieve success.
The current core group of player’s Romo (33), Austin (29), Witten (31), Spencer (29) and Ware (31) have been good to great players, but unfortunately have not been supplemented with the right pieces to build a championship contender.  With their high level of skill and in some cases potentially Hall of Fame careers, they were just not good enough to pull the Cowboys over the top alone.  Although most do not want to admit it, this group is reaching the age of decline and increased chance of injury.  Few players excel later in life (Peyton Manning, London Fletcher, etc), but the vast majority are out of the league in their early to mid-thirties.  Option B involves standing pat and hoping that with some minor tweaking and another year of learning the coaching systems, the results will vary significantly.

The next crop of core players’ are entering that phase of their careers where they will hit their peak.  The peak happens at the intersection of physical skill and mental sharpness.  We have all thought, if I knew now, back then, how much better of a player could I have been? 

That magical age is historically late 20s.  Murray (25), Smith (23), Bryant (25), Lee (27) and Church (25) are all approaching that point.  The majority of the Cowboys "young core" will be in that phase in the coming two years.  Following Option A this is the group you focus on and likely remove 60% of the current core this offseason.

The Cowboys are blessed with a very young team.  That group is learning and growing together to eventually become that championship team.  With the "young core" the Cowboys seem closer that most would think to some or all the characteristics of the final four teams because:

1 – veteran successful quarterback
2 – strong power running attack
3 – grinding offensive line, that can influence the later stages of games
4 – a defense that puts high focus on turnovers
5 – Strong special teams play
Of course there are some significant difference between the 2013 Dallas Cowboys and the final four teams in the Conference Finals, but I do not think the Cowboys are that far from competing, if they are smart with how they handle the coming two seasons.

The Cowboys should consider the 2014 season a year to build to move forward.  The salary cap is a mess due to long term contracts to older players and contracts being extended, adding dollars to years in the future.  In this vein, logic would dictate releasing veterans who are not living up to the contract and trading down in the draft to build around the "young core" with valuable pieces that fit the scheme, especially on the defensive line.  If the team drops below the dreaded 8 and 8 so be it, as adding one more impact player in the draft and freeing up salary cap space to spend wisely is the best path to good success in 2015, especially with a young core with 5 season of high productivity and potential Super Bowl payoff (s).
I choose option A, every time!

Too early Super Bowl Prediction

My way to early Super Bowl Prediction:

Seattle will win.

Why???
The meterologists are saying it will be awful out, similiar to the weather after Christmas.  They are predicting very cold and possibly snow.  In this weather strong, power running game and defense will win out.  It will be very difficult to pass the ball, so the high powered Denver offense will be somewhat stymied.

Super Bowl MVP - Marshawn Lynch

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

How I would fix the Dallas Cowboys 2014 offseason

My telephone rang last week.  A lovely ladies voice greeted me and asked me to hold for Mr. Jones.  Being half asleep and groggy, it wasn’t computing which Mr. Jones was calling me.  After a couple seconds of elevator music and much to my astonishment, Jerry Jones, owner and general manager of the Dallas Cowboys answered the phone.
We had a lovely chat for an hour about football, life and being a maverick, Mr. Jones told me he needed some new blood, some new thoughts on how to move forward.  Things had grown stagnant and the Cowboys needed some new ideas.  Then he did the unthinkable.  He asked me to submit my plan on how to return the Dallas Cowboys to their former glory.
Step one
 Fire Jason Garrett.  Following him out the door will be Bill Callaghan, Wes Phillips and Wade Wilson.  I will conduct two interviews; our new head coach Mike Zimmer and his new assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Norv Turner.  I would then allow these two to seek out and fill their coaching vacancies.  I would hope Zimmer would keep Marinelli, and get rid of Henderson, but that is his choice to make.
I would make it clear to Mike Zimmer that Club Cowboy is to end.  Discipline and order need to be restored.  Zimmer is known as a no nonsense fellow and I expect he will tighten things up around Valley Ranch.  After the injuries to the Bengals defense this year, Zimmer proved again he is a top defensive mind and has had the benefit of working within many of the best defensive coaching trees in the NFL (Bill Parcells, Rob Ryan, Jimmy Johnson, etc).  He has worked to meld these different ideas into his own system and with Marinelli as a hold over, it is one my system to add to the mix.
Norv Turner needs no introduction, but here goes, two names, Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.  Imagine what Norv can do to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, after the seasons from Gordon and Cameron.  The Browns offense had multiple Pro-Bowlers with far less talent than the Dallas Cowboys.  Imagine what Norv can achieve with the weapons on the Dallas sideline.  Norv has always been an awesome offensive coordinator, who blends running and passing, unlike Callaghan who is a pass heavy coordinator.

Step Two
When Jerry Jones took over the Cowboys, he was a gambler and ran the franchise his way.  Firing Landry was an unpopular move, but bringing in Jimmy Johnson was widely considered, years later, to be a genius move.  Al Davis, back in the day, was a maverick and a gambler too.  The Cowboys have lost the aggression in the front office and have become stagnant, making the same mistakes of other less successful teams.  The front office needs to become ruthless and stop rewarding past performance, much like the Patriots.
In this vein, release Demarcus Ware now and Miles Austin on June 1.  This will free up significant cap room – Dware - $7,432,250 and Austin - $5,500,000.  Both players are entering an injury prone stage of their careers and their production does not match their contracts.  I would make an effort to trade DWare, but I do not think anyone would offer me anything, as they can sign him as a free agent.
On this note, I would love to have Hatcher back, but unfortunately, there will be a team that offers him big money and he has a family to feed.  The Dallas Cowboys wish him all the best and would welcome him back at a club friendly contract.

Step Three
Tony Romo counts for an outrageous $21,733,000 this year on the cap.  Rework his deal down to a cap hit of $13,733,000 saving $8,000,000.  At the same time, redo the contracts of Brandon Carr saving $4,500,000; Sean Lee saving $3,200,000 and Orlando Scandrick saving $2,400,000.  These are players who should be in Dallas for a few more years, whether through talent or terrible contracts that are almost not able to be cut.
Note on two players
I would not redo Witten, as this will likely be his last year in Dallas, his cap hit is high and after drafting Escobar and Witten’s poor play this year, his time is coming.  Kyle Orton would make sense to cut, as a second quarterback making over $4million, but unfortunately, if you cut him, your savings is merely around $900,000 and in this situation, you have to still find another back up and now only have $900,000 to do it.  The same catch 22 exists with Bernadeau and Free, you can cut them, but with their dead money cap hits and the need to find a replacement, it makes little sense to dump them.

Step Four
Chop, chop, chop – Parnell, Costa and Durant are goners.  This saves $4.25 million and really doesn’t affect the on the field product, as really only Durant was a player this year and can be replaced by Wilber and Holloway.

Step Five
Get on the phones to other teams about trading our first rounder for either multiple picks this year or a pick this year and next year’s first.  Our pick is worth 1000 points, but with franchises like the Dolphins, Browns and Jets where it is playoffs of bust, they will be willing to make a move.  I would like to add another second and third, much like the San Francisco trade this year. 
That would mean 4 picks in the second and third rounds and with these, would add three bodies to the front four and an offensive lineman.  Great teams build from the lines out.  I would like to add two defensive tackles and one defensive end.  With Ware gone, we have Crawford, Wynn, Selvie, Brown, Rayford, Wilson and Bass, one addition like Trent Murphy or Kony Ealy would complete this group.  particularly, I like Murphy due to his physical nature and non-stop motor.
Defensive tackle is a bit more of a dog’s breakfast with Hayden, Wynn, Crawford, Irvin and Kearse.  Hardly a household name in the bunch.  The preferred two tackles would come from Nix, Sutton, Tuitt Jernigan and Donald.  Based upon simulated drafts at Drafttek, these are all players who should fall in the second and third rounds.  I really like Sutton, as a fast twitch, 3 technique necessary to attack the quarterback and drive the defense.  Of course, I would have to listen to my scouts and connections in the college game for our best options, but these are my favorites as of now.

Step Six
While on the phones, it would be time to contact agents and put out feelers to injured players that might sign club friendly one year contracts.  There are three names to keep a close eye on with ties to the team – Anthony Spencer, Henry Melton and Geno Atkins.  With limited cap space, it will be necessary to add players with warts to club friendly contracts and get the maximum mileage from them.  Veteran players with a little bit left in the tank, can be the most significant additions to clubs, think over the years with the Patriots – Seau, Harrison, Moss, Winters, etc.  With an emphasis on younger players, developed through smart drafting and strength and conditioning programs, it will be essential to identify veterans with something left in the tank who can add a bit of moxie and awareness.

Step Seven
This draft it is essential to add a third quarterback.  Orton will be gone likely next year, when his contract is less unfriendly for release.  With Romo’s contact, he better plan to start in Dallas for another 4 or 5 years, so this new quarterback would project as a future #2. 
Assuming Orton is release before next season, the new third quarterback would have a year to learn the system and get up to speed.  I like Aaron Murray from Georgia.  Great career numbers in a tough conference and a ton of experience in a good conference and big games.  Murray looks like he can “drive the bus” for a game or two if necessary, he likely isn’t a franchise quarterback though.  Murray is projected as a 5th round pick.

Step Eight
Fire the strength and conditioning department.  To many injuries over the past few years have caused ongoing issues with wins and losses.  Maybe with changes in the offseason work-out rules, the Cowboys have not kept up with the new reality. 
I’d offer the job to Shannon Turley from Stanford.  He seems to have unique training methods to help limit injuries and increase sport specific training.  Sometimes change is needed, not some much due to problems with the existing coaches, but a different voice and methodology changes the results.  Remember, the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. Some guy named Einstein said that.  He was pretty smart, not sure if he was much of a football guy though.
On this vein, one more issue I would have checked is the turf at AT&T Stadium.  Maybe hamstrings can be correlated to the practice or game facilities.  Maybe the carpet needs to be replaced with a new product.

Step Eight
Moving forward, I would hire a special research department, of non-football people to analyze the game, specifically over the past few years since the rule changes favoring the offense came into effect.  I would find a few statistics majors who want an interesting project.  It is important to remember humans are predictable, although the pattern is not always noticeable.  There is always a tendency, it is necessary to find those tendencies.  Getting an advantage due to advanced statistical analysis could be the difference between a win and loss.  It seems other sports have moved ahead of football in sports statistical analysis. 

After reviewing my plan, Mr. Jones slid a package of papers across the table.  It was a contract offer, to become the next general manager of the Dallas Cowboys.  I looked down the page and saw the word “compensation”. 
Smack!  Seconds before seeing the full offer, a wayward train car from my sons Christmas train set hits my shoulder.  Some sort of screaming starts.  “Daddy, she threw my train set.”  From my dream job to another day in paradise at home with my wife and kids, maybe sometimes a dream is just that!

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue on Amazon

This is so exciting, my first novel, a young adult adventure novel has debuted on Amazon.  This is the largest online book retailer in the world. 

Please check it out and buy your own copy at Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue on Amazon

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

My first novel - E-Published


Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue

You’re commanding a tall ship on the ocean, with the greatest naval captain in the fleet hot on your tail. He has a bigger ship, which is faster, with more guns and a seasoned pirate crew. They’re closing fast! He has been sailing the high seas for over thirty years, more than twice your age, your men are staring at you, waiting for you to tell them what to do next. What do you do?
This is but one of the dilemmas facing young Otto DeGraff in Otto and the Hunt for Mal Goue, the story of a young boy from humble beginnings, who escapes an arranged marriage, becomes a stowaway on a battleship and unknowingly stumbles into the biggest act of treason in the history of the Dutch East India Company. The novel is set during the grand era of the high seas, at the height of the Dutch East India Company, when tall ships sailed the ocean, men made their living on the high seas and pirates terrified even the bravest of souls.

Otto faces insurmountable obstacles in his quest to find Mal Goue, the mythical artifact that turns dirt into gold and will ultimately save his family. Along the way Otto has to use his cunning, strength and nerve to overcome the cast of scoundrels including Mr. Landseer, the corrupt magistrate, the Pirate King and the treasonous Captain Vanderzee. In the exciting climax, Otto has to face his fears and his toughest adversary in a stunning sword dual to save his life and the lives of his crew.

Order the book online - http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/144126

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Strange thins abound ....

Strange goings on in the NFL right now, and could have major impacts on the upcoming draft.   Since both free agency and trading seasons are not currently happening, teams cannot plug holes or bring in big name solutions and must deal solely with through the draft to improve their team.  It is completely backward to the traditional team building methodology.

Take the Bengals.  They are impacting upto 4 other teams right now (Panthers, Bills, Cardinals and 49ers).  With Carson Palmer demanding a trade and the likely destinations to be either San Fran or Arizona, how does this impact the draft?  What picks would likely be exchanged for the veteran pivot.  Will the 49ers or Cardinals draft a player for the Bengals and consummate the trade at a later date?  Will the Bengals accept all time delayed picks in 2012 and 2013?

This being a deep draft and with the other team getting a Pro-Bowl potential quarterback, I would suggest get what you can this season.  Adding Palmer to the Cardinals would likely mean a division title in the NFC West.  It would definitely vault the 49ers into a likely conversation as division favourites.

What about teams that are hoping to get in Matt Light or Cullen Jenkins or As… ?  If your offseason plan is to shore up the middle of your defense and Cullen Jenkins is available, do you go ahead and draft a Paea or Taylor?  Without having the advantage of knowing which free agents you can access, do you know what draft strategy to run?

The confusion builds with different groups of free agents.  Will the current tender system exist?  If not, what will replace it?  If you have 3 of 4 players at one position that are tender possible, could you possibly lose one of your starting ends and both primary back ups (like Dallas)?

What does Green Bay do with Nick Barnett?  He is a veteran, who lost his job and now has a contract and a back up role.  Is he a player you can release, or possibly trade for a late round pick?

Strange times are here in the NFL.  With the draft looming, we could see some weird, off the wall picks that are pre-ambles for trades that are coming.  Imagine the Cardinals taking a wide out in the second round.  Everyone will think they are off their collective rockers, but then when the new CBA is in effect, magically this wide out is in Cincinnati and Carson Palmer is a Cardinal, chucking the ball to Fitzgerald.